新能源及有色金属日报：静待降息落地，镍不锈钢价格震荡走低-20250918

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory decline and rising material costs. The demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be further observed [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On September 17, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 122,580 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.81% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 90,734 (- 13,858) lots, and the open interest was 58,829 (- 7,709) lots. The contract showed a volatile downward trend, pressured by the market's cautious sentiment before the Fed's interest - rate decision and the rising US dollar index [1]. - Nickel Ore: The market remained calm with stable prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes, while downstream iron plants maintained cautious procurement due to losses. In Indonesia, the supply was loose, the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price increased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars, and the domestic trade premium was +24 (range: +23 - 24). The ore end was bullish on the subsequent premium due to the rising nickel - iron price [1]. - Spot: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 940 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was generally average, and the premiums and discounts of refined nickel brands were mainly stable, with some in a discount state. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 26,141 (- 26) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 228,468 (+2,034) tons [2]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options are provided [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - Market Analysis - Futures: On September 17, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened and closed at 12,935 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 170,126 (- 60,650) lots, and the open interest was 127,750 (- 4,171) lots. The contract showed a volatile and weak trend, fluctuating between 12,885 - 12,995 yuan and failing to break through the 13,000 - yuan mark, reflecting the intensified game between the peak - season expectation and weak actual demand [3]. - Spot: Affected by the weakening of the futures market, downstream buyers remained on the sidelines due to the "buy on rising, not on falling" sentiment. Although some traders lowered their quotes, actual transactions were light. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were 13,250 (- 50) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 275 - 575 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options are provided [5].