甲醇日报：港口累库节奏首度放缓-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The port inventory accumulation pace has slowed down for the first time. After the restart of the downstream MTO Xingxing, it supported the port demand, and the port inventory remained basically flat this week. However, the subsequent arrival pressure is still high, and the subsequent changes mainly depend on when the Iranian winter inspection plan will be announced [3] - The lowest point of coal - based methanol production has passed, but it will not return to a high level until the second half of the month. The inventory of inland methanol plants is still low, and overall, the inland market is stronger than the port market. The window for port re - flow to the inland is an important variable supporting the lower limit of port prices. The high - start acetic acid production has peaked and declined, and formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery. Attention should be paid to the decline in the resilience of inland demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - Includes figures such as methanol Taicang basis and the main methanol contract, methanol basis in different regions relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., methanol 01 - methanol 05, methanol 05 - methanol 09, methanol 09 - methanol 01) [7][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Involves figures related to Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), and import price differences such as Taicang methanol - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][30] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Covers figures on total port methanol inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][34] 4. Regional Price Differences - Includes figures on price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][45] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Involves figures on production profits of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [49][54]