氯碱日报：烧碱山东库存继续累积，下游继续下调接货价-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity, and although demand has slightly improved, the inventory is high, and the supply - demand situation remains weak. The export outlook in the fourth quarter is dim. The PVC futures price is under pressure, but the impact of anti - involution policies needs attention. - The spot price of caustic soda has declined. The开工 rate of chlor - alkali enterprises has decreased slightly, and production may decline. Demand is unstable, with inventory accumulating in Shandong, and the demand support is weakening. However, cost support exists, and the profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4973 yuan/ton (+13), the East China basis is - 193 yuan/ton (-13), and the South China basis is - 123 yuan/ton (-13) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4780 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4850 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 640 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2840 yuan/ton (+60), the calcium carbide profit is 38 yuan/ton (+60), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 502 yuan/ton (-81), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 672 yuan/ton (-1), and the PVC export profit is - 12.0 US dollars/ton (-8.3) [1]. - Inventory and开工 rate: The in - factory PVC inventory is 31.0 tons (-0.6), the social PVC inventory is 53.2 tons (-0.1), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate is 80.29% (+2.64%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate is 77.20% (+4.61%), and the overall PVC开工 rate is 79.39% (+3.21%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 68.9 tons (+1.8) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2608 yuan/ton (+29), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 46 yuan/ton (-29) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 820 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1571 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 708.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 332.28 yuan/ton (-84.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1437.25 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Inventory and开工 rate: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 35.68 tons (-3.10), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.21 tons (+0.07), and the caustic soda开工 rate is 81.90% (-1.50%) [2]. - Downstream开工 rate: The alumina开工 rate is 85.21% (+0.83%), the dyeing and printing开工 rate in East China is 65.76% (+0.13%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate is 87.77% (+0.67%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply may decrease slightly due to maintenance, but new production capacity is increasing, so the supply is still abundant. Demand has improved slightly, but the inventory is high, and the export outlook in the fourth quarter is not good. The profit of chlor - alkali can still be compressed, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The high number of futures warehouse receipts suppresses the price, and the impact of anti - involution policies needs attention [3]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda has declined. The chlor - alkali enterprise开工 rate has decreased slightly, and production may decline. Demand is unstable, with inventory accumulating in Shandong, and the demand support is weakening. However, cost support exists, and the profit of chlor - alkali is at a medium level compared to the same period [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Wait and see - Inter - delivery: Wait and see - Inter - commodity: None Caustic Soda - Single - side: Wait and see - Inter - delivery: Go long the SH01 - 05 spread when the price is low - Inter - commodity: None [4][5]