燃料油日报：短期矛盾有限，燃料油市场结构持稳运行-20250918

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - High - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Short - term neutral, medium - term downward [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Cross - period: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Crude oil prices are oscillating strongly recently, but due to many short - term uncertainties from geopolitics and the macro - environment and the expectation of a looser balance sheet in the medium term, it's hard to form a strong trend, and the guidance for fuel oil price direction is limited, with the whole sector in an oscillating range [1] - High - sulfur fuel oil is in the market re - balancing stage, with relatively abundant near - end supply and high inventory, but the pressure has eased compared to the previous period, and the market structure is stable. After the seasonal decline in power generation terminal demand, the market needs the recovery of refinery - end demand to achieve balance [1] - For low - sulfur fuel oil, the local supply pressure has increased due to the increased exports from Nigeria's Dangote refinery after the RFCC unit shutdown. However, the volume of arbitrage cargoes in the Western region has declined, domestic production remains at a medium - low level, and domestic refineries have no significant tendency to increase production after the issuance of the third batch of quotas, so the change in the market structure is also limited [1] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Charts - The report presents various charts related to fuel oil, including spot prices, swap near - month contracts, near - month spreads, futures contract closing prices, and trading volume and open interest of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore and domestic markets, with units such as US dollars/ton and yuan/ton [3][11][13]