新能源及有色金属日报：基本面表现一般，多晶硅工业硅盘面震荡运行-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [5] Core View - The fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon show general performance, and their futures prices are in a volatile state. The industrial silicon futures are mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upward space if driven by policies. The polysilicon futures are affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices in the medium - to - long - term [2][5] Market Analysis of Industrial Silicon - On September 17, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,895 yuan/ton and closed at 8,965 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.06% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 285,673 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 49,896 lots, a change of 24 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,700 yuan/ton. The prices in many regions remained stable [1] - The consumption side was stable. After nearly two weeks of low - level stable operation, most downstream enterprises had completed rigid restocking. Monomer factories had an increased willingness to support prices and made small trial increases [1] Strategy of Industrial Silicon - The futures market fluctuated slightly. The fundamentals changed little recently. The supply increased after resumption of production, and the consumption side was stable. The industrial silicon futures were mainly affected by the overall commodity sentiment and policy news. Attention should be paid to whether there are relevant capacity exit policies. Currently, the valuation of industrial silicon is low, and the market may have upward space if promoted by policies [2] - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Market Analysis of Polysilicon - On September 17, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures maintained a volatile state, opening at 53,665 yuan/ton and closing at 53,490 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.09% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 126,234 lots, and the trading volume was 186,238 lots [3] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 50.10 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 50.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the inventory of silicon wafers decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 31,200 tons, a change of 3.31% month - on - month, and the output of silicon wafers was 13.88GW, a change of 0.73% month - on - month [3] - In September, the domestic polysilicon production schedule was expected to be about 130,000 tons, still in excess compared with downstream demand. Some leading manufacturers planned to cut production in October [4] Strategy of Polysilicon - The implementation of the energy - consumption policy was late, and the short - term supply - demand fundamentals of polysilicon were general. The market was mainly volatile. The market was affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy was still being promoted. Participants needed to pay attention to risk management and follow up on policy implementation and spot - price transmission. In the medium - to - long - term, it was suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [5] - Unilateral: Short - term interval operation; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [5]