新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-18）-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating bullish [2] - Coking coal and coke: Bullish [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Rebound [2] - Glass: Bullish [2] - Soda ash: Rebound [2] - SSE 50 Index: Oscillating [2] - CSI 300 Index: Upward [2] - CSI 500 Index: Upward [3] - CSI 1000 Index: Upward [3] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillating [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Rebound [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Range-bound oscillation [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Bearish [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillating bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillating bearish [6] - Live pigs: Oscillating bullish [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillating [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The Fed's interest rate cut landed as expected, and after the National Day, trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The market sentiment for various commodities has been affected by factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand changes, and cost fluctuations [2][3]. - The overall market shows a mixed trend, with different commodities having different investment outlooks, and investors need to pay attention to specific supply and demand situations and market factors of each commodity [2][3][4][5][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments increased, supply returned, and iron ore demand rebounded with the recovery of daily average hot metal production. The short - term fundamental contradictions of iron ore are limited, and attention should be paid to whether the 2601 contract can stand firm at the previous high [2]. - Coking coal and coke: Affected by coal mine shutdown news and the "anti - involution" expectation, the coking coal and coke futures rebounded significantly. The supply of coking coal is likely to be weaker than last year, and demand rebounded with the recovery of hot metal production [2]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Supply will remain at a relatively high level, inventory pressure will continue to increase, and total demand is difficult to show an anti - seasonal performance. In the short term, the 2601 contract of rebar will oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to inventory performance [2]. - Glass: The rise of glass futures is driven by the strengthening of upstream fuel prices and the improvement of macro - sentiment. Although the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially improved, the inventory reduction process provides some confidence [2]. - Soda ash: Currently, the trading is about cold - repair, and the key lies in the cold - repair path. In the long term, the real estate industry is still in an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the improvement of real demand [2]. Financial Industry - Stock index futures/options: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the market showed different trends. Multiple financial and electric power grid sectors had capital inflows, while precious metals and agriculture sectors had capital outflows. It is recommended to hold long positions in stock indexes while controlling risk preferences [2][3]. - Treasury bonds: Market interest rates fluctuated, and the trend of treasury bonds was weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - Precious metals: Gold's pricing mechanism is shifting, and factors such as the Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, and physical gold demand in China affect its price. Gold is expected to maintain high - level oscillation [4]. Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume of logs at ports increased slightly, the supply pressure was not large, and the inventory was at a critical threshold. The cost - side support weakened, and it is expected to oscillate in a range [5]. - Pulp: The spot market price showed a differentiated trend, the cost support for pulp prices increased, but the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified. Pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. - Offset paper: The spot market price was relatively stable, but the industry is in a stage of over - capacity, with stable short - term supply and poor demand. It should be treated bearishly [5]. Oil and Fat Industry - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil in the producing areas increased, and the supply of domestic soybean oil may tighten in the future. Oils may oscillate widely in the short term after a previous sharp rise, and attention should be paid to the weather in the US soybean - producing areas and the production and sales of palm oil in Malaysia [5][6]. - Oilseeds and meals: The total output of US soybeans increased, and the domestic supply pressure was significant. The demand was weak, and soybean meal is expected to continue to oscillate bearishly [6]. Agricultural Products Industry - Live pigs: The average trading weight of live pigs increased slightly, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate increased. With the increase in the supply of large pigs, the support for the overall price weakened. The price of standard pigs may decline slightly, and the price difference between fat and standard pigs may widen slightly [6]. Soft Commodities Industry - Rubber: The supply - side pressure decreased, the demand - side capacity utilization rate increased, and the inventory continued to decline. The price of natural rubber is expected to oscillate widely [8]. - Polyester products: PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF have different supply - demand situations and cost factors, and their market trends are mainly oscillating or in a wait - and - see state [8].