国富期货早间看点-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including spot prices, fundamental information, macro - news, and capital flows. It shows that there are various changes in production, supply - demand, and price trends in the agricultural and energy sectors, and also reflects the impact of macro - economic policies and events on the market [1][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Spot Market - Futures Prices: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybeans are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 11 (BMD) is 4422.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.07% and an overnight decrease of 0.58% [1] - Spot and Basis: The spot prices and basis of DCE palm oil 2601, DCE soybean oil 2601, and DCE soybean meal 2601 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9560, with a basis of 100 and no change from the previous day [2] - Exchange Rates: The latest exchange rates and their changes of major currencies against the US dollar are given, like the US dollar index at 97.00 with a 0.40% increase [1] 3.2 Important Fundamental Information 3.2.1产区天气 - US Soybean Main - producing States: The future weather outlook (September 22 - 26) shows that the temperature in the main - producing states is generally high, and precipitation is close to or lower than the median. The Midwest has high temperatures and showers that are mostly unfavorable for crop maturity and harvest [3][5] 3.2.2 International Supply and Demand - Malaysian Palm Oil: From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 8.05% compared to the same period last month. Different institutions have different estimates of its export volume changes [7][8] - US Agricultural Products: Analysts expect that as of the week ending September 11, 2025/26 US soybean export sales will net increase by 40 - 150 million tons, and there are also corresponding expectations for soybean meal and soybean oil export sales [8] - Canadian Rapeseed: In 2025, Canada's rapeseed production is expected to increase by 4.1% to 20 million tons, with different production trends in different provinces [10] - Australian Rapeseed: The 2025/26 Australian rapeseed production is expected to be 6.1 million tons, a 3.4% increase from the previous forecast [11] - Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index: It rose for the fourth consecutive day due to the increase in capesize ship freight rates [11] 3.2.3 Domestic Supply and Demand - Commodity Trading Volume: On September 17, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased compared to the previous day, while the trading volume of soybean meal increased. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate decreased by 1.82% to 67.82% [13][14] - Production of Refined Edible Vegetable Oil: In August 2025, China's refined edible vegetable oil production was 4.506 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease. From January to August, the cumulative production was 34.054 million tons, a 3.0% cumulative year - on - year increase [14] - Agricultural Product Prices: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index both decreased slightly. The prices of some agricultural products such as pork, beef, and mutton decreased, while the price of eggs increased [14] 3.3 Macro - news 3.3.1 International News - US Federal Reserve: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 87.7%. The Fed has restarted the rate - cut process, and there are different expectations among officials for future rate cuts [16][17] - US Economic Data: Data such as US building permits, new home starts, EIA crude oil inventories, and MBA mortgage application activity index are presented, showing the current economic situation in the US [17][18] - Indonesian Central Bank: The Indonesian central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates for the sixth time since last September, aiming to stimulate demand while keeping inflation low [19] - Eurozone CPI: The eurozone's August CPI annual rate and monthly rate were both slightly lower than expected [19] 3.3.2 Domestic News - Exchange Rate: On September 17, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was reported at 7.1013, down 14 points (renminbi appreciation) [21] - Central Bank Operations: On September 17, the People's Bank of China conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 114.5 billion yuan [21] - Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure: From January to August 2025, corporate income tax revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, personal income tax revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, vehicle purchase tax revenue decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, and stamp duty revenue increased by 27.4% year - on - year [21] 3.4 Capital Flows - On September 17, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 7.386 billion yuan. Among them, commodity futures had a net outflow of 6.727 billion yuan, stock index futures had a net outflow of 862 million yuan, and bond futures had a net inflow of 197 million yuan [25] 3.5 Arbitrage Tracking - No information provided in the report