化工日报：低加工费下PTA检修计划增多-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The PTA maintenance plans have increased under low processing fees, such as Hengli and Dushan Energy planning to conduct maintenance in October and November respectively. The PTA futures closed up in a volatile manner on Wednesday, the negotiation atmosphere in the spot market was average, and individual mainstream suppliers reduced the contract supply in October, leading to a slight strengthening of the spot basis [1]. - In terms of the cost side, the oil price has been fluctuating recently, and attention should be paid to the Russia-Ukraine situation. The oil price has rebounded since last Friday. On the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine negotiations have been suspended again. On the other hand, the US military carried out a military operation in the offshore area of Venezuela, which raised concerns about Venezuela's national security. The PXN was 229 US dollars/ton (a month-on-month change of +1.63 US dollars/ton) the day before last. The negotiation on the floating price of PX was deadlocked, and the PXN weakened to 230 US dollars/ton and then fluctuated. Recently, the PX load in China has gradually recovered. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the PX balance sheet in September has changed from destocking to a loose balance, but the overall PX inventory is still at a low level. As the PTA devices resume operation, the PX will turn to destocking again. Considering the rigid demand for PX from new PTA devices, there is support below the PXN. Continued attention should be paid to window negotiations and warehouse receipt situations [2]. - In terms of TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract was -77 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +3 yuan/ton), the PTA spot processing fee was 130 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -1 yuan/ton), and the processing fee on the main contract's disk was 332 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of +6 yuan/ton). The PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited [2]. - In terms of demand, the polyester operating rate was 91.6% (a month-on-month increase of 0.3%). The current demand shows signs of recovery, but the order connection is insufficient, mainly with local scattered orders. The high inventory of grey fabrics is being depleted slowly. The market's expectation for the subsequent demand level is neutral to pessimistic. Most terminal raw material purchases maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude, digesting previous stocks while following up with rigid demand. In terms of polyester load, the inventory of filament is not high but gradually accumulating. It is expected that the load of filament and staple fiber will continue to stabilize and slightly rebound in September. The load of bottle chips is expected to increase slightly, but the increase may be limited. It is expected that the polyester load will stabilize and slightly rebound in September, with the average monthly load likely to be below 91.5% [3]. - In terms of PF, the spot production profit was 175 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -6 yuan/ton). Direct-spun polyester staple fiber fluctuated and consolidated following the raw materials, and the load continued to increase slightly. As the price difference between high and low prices in the market narrowed, factory sales improved, inventory decreased, the demand for staple fiber at a low price was acceptable, the factory inventory was low, and currently, the inventory held by traders was small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber was better than that of the raw material side. Due to the relatively weak performance of raw materials, the processing margin of direct-spun polyester staple fiber expanded to over 1000 [3]. - In terms of PR, the spot processing fee of bottle chips was 454 yuan/ton (a month-on-month change of -11 yuan/ton). The fundamentals of bottle chips have not changed much. The current order receipt and shipment performance of bottle chips are average. It is reported that the industry's overall target of 20% production reduction and suspension in September remains unchanged. It is expected that the subsequent increase in bottle chip load will be limited, the overall inventory pressure of factories has decreased, and the processing fee of polyester bottle chips is expected to maintain small fluctuations. Under the pressure of the commissioning of the new Fuhai device in the future, the supply-demand pressure is still relatively large, and production reduction is needed for adjustment. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices [4]. - Strategy: For single-sided trading, the ratings for PX/PTA/PF/PR are neutral. For PX, since August, PX devices have been restarted intensively. With the increase in PTA maintenance, the fundamentals have weakened month-on-month, and the PXN has loosened. However, with low inventory and the restart of PTA, the PX will turn to destocking again, and there is support below the PXN. For TA, the PTA load is increasing from a low level, and the near-term destocking fundamentals are acceptable. However, there is a pressure of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter due to the expected commissioning of new devices. Recently, mainstream suppliers have been selling goods, and the market's spot supply is relatively abundant. At the same time, the recovery of the demand side is limited, and the order connection is insufficient under high inventory. The increase in polyester load is limited. For PF, the demand for PF has improved slightly, the inventory has started to decrease, the demand at a low price is acceptable, and currently, the inventory held by traders is small. In the short term, the supply-demand situation of direct-spun polyester staple fiber is better than that of the raw material side, but its upward momentum is not strong. For PR, several major manufacturers have extended their maintenance plans. It is expected that the spot processing fee of bottle chips will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuation of raw material prices. For cross-variety trading, go long on the PF processing fee at low prices: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601. There is no strategy for cross-period trading [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - Figures show the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright white basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures display PX processing fee PXN, PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures present the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show the PTA load in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the PX load in China and Asia [30][33][37] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures present the weekly social inventory of PTA, monthly social inventory of PX, total PTA warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures show the production and sales of filament and short - fiber, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing machine start - up rate, and filament profit [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures display the polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, original - recycled price difference, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [72][76][83] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures show the polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip price difference, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [93][97][100]