农产品每日早盘观察-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - For soybeans/meal, the monthly supply - demand report has limited impact. The market rebounds due to full reflection of previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][6]. - For sugar, globally, supply is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus. International prices are expected to rebound at low levels, and in the domestic market, Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - For the oil and fat sector, the US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory, so prices are expected to oscillate and provide opportunities to buy on dips [17]. - For corn/corn starch, the US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - For live pigs, large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - For peanuts, the supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - For eggs, as restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - For apples, the high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - For cotton - cotton yarn, new cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans/Meal - Outer - market situation: CBOT soybean index fell 0.4% to 1062.75 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index fell 0.75% to 290 dollars/short ton [2]. - Relevant information: USDA export sales report forecast shows expected US 2025/26 market - year soybean export net sales of 40 - 150 tons; Anec reported Brazilian soybean and meal export volumes from September 14 - 20; extreme weather may delay Brazilian soybean planting by 2 - 3 weeks; Chinese oil mills' soybean inventory increased, and meal inventory also increased [2][3]. - Logic analysis: The monthly supply - demand report has limited impact, and the market rebounds due to previous negatives and macro - factors. South American demand is good, and overall price support exists but with limited upside. In China, supply is ample, demand is good, and inventory pressure is relatively large, so prices are expected to fluctuate [4][6]. - Strategy suggestions: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: expand the MRM05 spread; Options: wait and see [7]. Sugar - Outer - market changes: ICE US raw sugar and London white sugar prices both fell [7]. - Important information: Brazilian sugar exports in the first two weeks of September decreased compared to last year; 10 - month contract delivery information; the global sugar market is transitioning from a deficit to a surplus, and Brazilian sugar production has uncertainties [8][9][10]. - Logic analysis: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and global inventory is increasing. The expected increase in global sugar production is high, and prices are expected to rebound at low levels. Domestically, a large amount of imported sugar has entered the market, and Zheng sugar is likely to oscillate in a range and rebound in the short - term [11]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: consider buying near the previous low; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell out - of - the - money put options near the previous low [12][13]. Oil and Fat Sector - Outer - market situation: CBOT US soybean oil and BMD Malaysian palm oil prices both decreased [15]. - Relevant information: Malaysian palm oil production decreased in early September; Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase; Chinese oil and fat trading volume decreased [16]. - Logic analysis: US biodiesel has been digested, and the oil and fat market has declined. The increase in production and inventory of Malaysian palm oil is expected to slow down. Indonesian inventory is low, and the price of palm oil is supported. Domestic soybean oil is in the process of inventory accumulation, and rapeseed oil is gradually reducing inventory [17]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: consider buying on dips; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [18][19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - Outer - market changes: CBOT corn futures fell [23]. - Important information: CBOT corn futures fell due to profit - taking and a stronger dollar; Chinese port corn and related product inventories changed; corn processing and starch production increased, and starch inventory decreased; North port purchase prices were weak [24][25]. - Logic analysis: US corn futures have declined, and the rebound space is limited. In China, corn supply is still scarce, and spot prices are expected to fall. The 01 corn contract is in bottom - range oscillation with limited downward space [26][28]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: wait for the 12 - month contract to correct and buy the 01 contract after it stabilizes; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [29][30][31]. Live Pigs - Relevant information: Pig prices are generally falling; piglet and sow prices are also falling; agricultural product wholesale price indices and pork prices decreased [33]. - Logic analysis: Large - scale enterprises maintain high slaughter volumes, and overall supply remains stable. With relatively high inventory, there is downward pressure on prices [34]. - Strategy suggestions: Unilateral: take a short - term bearish view on near - month contracts; Arbitrage: conduct LH15 reverse spreads; Options: buy long - term call options [35]. Peanuts - Important information: Peanut prices increased slightly; oil mills' purchase prices and arrival volumes were affected by rain; peanut oil and meal prices were stable; peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [36][37][39]. - Logic analysis: The supply of new peanuts is still limited, and the market is stable. The 01 peanut contract is in short - term bottom - range oscillation [40]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: the 11 and 01 contracts are in bottom - range oscillation, and try short - term long positions on the 05 contract after it corrects; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [41][42][43]. Eggs - Important information: Egg prices are oscillating, with some areas stable and some falling; the number of laying hens in production increased in August; egg sales and inventories decreased [45][46]. - Trading logic: As restocking in each link nears completion, egg prices are expected to face pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [47]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: consider short - selling on rallies; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [48][49]. Apples - Important information: Apple cold - storage inventory decreased; apple exports increased, and imports decreased slightly; mid - season apple prices were firm, and new - season apple prices varied by region; storage merchants' profits decreased [51][52][53]. - Trading logic: The high - quality fruit rate of early - maturing apples is poor. The opening price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high, and the futures are expected to fluctuate in the short - term [54]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: wait and see; Arbitrage: wait and see first; Options: wait and see [57][58]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Outer - market impact: ICE US cotton prices fell [60]. - Important information: The Fed cut interest rates; Indian cotton weekly and cumulative listings changed; Zhangjiagang bonded - area cotton inventory decreased slightly [61][62]. - Trading logic: New cotton is entering the acquisition period. The output of Xinjiang cotton is expected to increase, and there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand improvement is limited, so the market is expected to be slightly weak [65]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral: expect US cotton to oscillate, and Zheng cotton to be slightly weak, and trade opportunistically; Arbitrage: wait and see; Options: wait and see [66].