化工日报：EG主港库存低位持稳-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - EG prices are oscillating. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,297 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,373 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month-on-month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$73/ton (down $1/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -154 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 465,000 tons (up 6,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 363,000 tons (down 13,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at major ports in East China this week is 94,000 tons, a moderate amount [1]. - On the supply side, the domestic ethylene glycol load remains stable at a high level, and there are still many losses in overseas ethylene glycol supply. There are still more than two sets of Saudi Arabian plants in shutdown or low - load operation, and some ocean - going cargoes are still delaying shipment. There is room to revise down the ethylene glycol imports from September to October. On the demand side, the current demand recovery is slow, and order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement later. In September, the EG balance sheet is slightly in surplus, and the main port inventory is expected to remain low, but the advanced commissioning plans of two new plants, Yulong and Ningxia Changyi, dampen market sentiment [2]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4,297 yuan/ton (up 25 yuan/ton or 0.59% from the previous trading day), the spot price in the East China market was 4,373 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan/ton or 0.21% from the previous trading day), and the spot basis in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 81 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was -$73/ton (down $1/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was -154 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Price Difference - No specific data provided in the text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - The current demand recovery is slow, and order connection is insufficient. It is expected that the polyester load will remain stable with a slight increase, but the increase may be limited. Attention should be paid to the time of concentrated order placement later [2]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at major ports in East China was 465,000 tons (up 6,000 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 363,000 tons (down 13,000 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 85,000 tons, and the port inventory remained stable with a slight increase. The planned arrival at major ports in East China this week is 94,000 tons, a moderate amount [1].