Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is currently oscillating with limited upward drivers. After the market rebound, resistance factors have emerged. Although the fundamentals are relatively stable, the overall operating rate has declined due to some device overhauls. The LPG market has short - term support but lacks further upward drivers, and its price breakthrough space may be limited without unexpected macro or supply - disruption events [1] - The recommended strategy for the LPG market is to take a long position on the PG main contract when the price is low during the period of a fluctuating and slightly bullish trend, and the previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated when the price is high [2] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - On September 17, the regional LPG prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4520 - 4550 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3970 - 4330 yuan/ton; North China market, 4350 - 4650 yuan/ton; East China market, 4450 - 4550 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4610 - 4800 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4550 - 4650 yuan/ton; South China market, 4498 - 4690 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 605 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) and 585 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4730 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) and 4573 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan/ton) in RMB. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 598 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) and 578 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4675 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) and 4519 yuan/ton (up 13 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - In the spot market, the price in South China rose slightly yesterday, while the mainstream prices in other regions remained stable. The trading atmosphere was average, and downstream buyers mainly made purchases based on rigid demand. After the market rebound, resistance factors emerged. As the raw material cost rebounded, the profit of PDH shrank again, and the overall operating rate declined due to some device overhauls. However, the fundamentals were relatively stable. Looking forward, the LPG market has short - term support but lacks further upward drivers [1] Strategy - Unilateral: The market is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Investors are advised to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the PG main contract when the price is low, and the previous long positions can be appropriately liquidated when the price is high [2] - Inter - month spread: No recommendation [2] - Cross - commodity spread: No recommendation [2] - Spot - futures: No recommendation [2] - Options: No recommendation [2]
液化石油气日报：盘面震荡运行，上行驱动有限-20250918
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-18 03:05