油脂日报：宏观环境变化，油脂承压震荡-20250918

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. Recent macro - environmental changes have put pressure on oil prices. The supply side of oils remains relatively loose, with high inventories in both producing and consuming regions, causing overall prices to be under pressure and fluctuate [3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9424.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan or 0.61% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract yesterday was 8366.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 52.00 yuan or 0.62% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9999.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 54.00 yuan or 0.54% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9380.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30.00 yuan or 0.32%, with a spot basis of P01 + - 44.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8530.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan/ton or 0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 164.00, an increase of 2.00 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10220.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50.00 yuan or 0.49%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 221.00, an increase of 4.00 yuan [1] Market News - The French Ministry of Agriculture predicts that France's soft wheat exports outside the EU in 2025/26 will be 7.85 million tons, up from the July forecast of 7.5 million tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 were 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease from the same period last month [2] - Canadian rapeseed (November shipment) C&F price increased by 7 dollars/ton to 535 dollars/ton, and (January shipment) increased by 7 dollars/ton to 544 dollars/ton [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by 5 dollars/ton to 1183 dollars/ton, and (December shipment) increased by 6 dollars/ton to 1179 dollars/ton [2] - Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) C&F price remained flat at 1080 dollars/ton, and (December shipment) remained flat at 1060 dollars/ton [2] - US Gulf soybeans (November shipment) C&F price increased by 4 dollars/ton to 473 dollars/ton, US West soybeans (November shipment) decreased by 4 dollars/ton to 444 dollars/ton, and Brazilian soybeans (November shipment) decreased by 3 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [2] - Import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (November shipment) increased by 5 cents/bushel to 240 cents/bushel, US West Coast (November shipment) decreased by 18 cents/bushel to 160 cents/bushel, and Brazilian ports (November shipment) decreased by 13 cents/bushel to 286 cents/bushel [2] - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21% month - on - month, and production decreased by 8.05% month - on - month [2]