Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, in line with market expectations, and restarted the interest rate cut cycle. There are still differences on whether the Fed will complete three interest rate cuts this year, and the future interest rate cut rhythm is not clear [1][2]. - The RMB exchange rate has achieved the "three - price integration" of the central parity rate, the spot exchange rate, and market expectations, and is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 in the short term [2]. - The stock index may face callback pressure due to the fulfillment of the positive news of the Fed's interest rate cut, but the downside space is limited due to policy expectations, and it is expected to turn into a shock after the callback [3]. - The bond market was less affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. There is a low expectation of domestic interest rate cuts, but the central bank may use other tools to inject liquidity, and long positions can be bought on dips [4]. - The near - month contracts of the container shipping index have fallen as expected, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [5]. - Precious metals are undergoing high - level adjustments. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, but there is significant short - term adjustment pressure [6]. - The copper price has fallen after the Fed's interest rate cut, and its fundamentals do not support further strengthening [8][9]. - The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [11][12][13]. - The zinc price fluctuates at the bottom, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand remaining to be observed [15]. - The prices of nickel and stainless steel follow the macro - level guidance and are expected to be volatile [16]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton [17]. - The lead price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [18]. - The steel price may face a callback due to the weakening of macro - drivers and the lack of upward drivers in the fundamentals [21]. - The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, with the market in a tight - balance state [22]. - It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke, and they are not recommended as short - allocation varieties in the black series [23][24]. - It is recommended to try long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese at the cost - line level [24][25]. - The oil price is expected to continue to run in a narrow range in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds should be grasped [28]. - The LPG price is expected to be volatile [29]. - PX - TA is expected to be volatile and bullish due to frequent maintenance rumors on the supply side [29][30][31]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies [33][34]. - It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol [35]. - The PP price has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [36][37]. - The PE price is expected to be in a shock pattern, with limited upward and downward space [40]. - It is recommended to wait and see for PVC [42]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in a shock state, and it is recommended to wait and see [43][44]. - It is recommended to try short - selling the cracking profit of fuel oil [44]. - It is recommended to try short - selling the far - month high - low sulfur spread of low - sulfur fuel oil [45]. - It is recommended to try long - allocation for asphalt [45]. - The urea price is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [46]. - The soda ash price is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to be volatile [47]. - The glass price lacks a clear trend, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [48]. - The caustic soda price is expected to follow the spot rhythm, and attention should be paid to the peak season performance and downstream inventory - building enthusiasm [50]. - The pulp price is expected to be in a shock state, and investors should pay attention to inflation stickiness, economic data, and the Fed's policy rhythm [50]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and an increase in inflation. It is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and once next year. The market focuses on the Fed's easing expectations, personnel adjustments, and independence issues, as well as precious metal tariff policies [1][6]. - The Canadian central bank also cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected [1][2]. - The Chinese government attaches increasing importance to the consumption sector, and more policies in the livelihood field are expected to be introduced. The economic growth rate continued to slow down in August, with a significant weakening in the investment sector and a narrowing decline in the consumption growth rate [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has achieved the "three - price integration", and is expected to fluctuate around 7.10 in the short term. Enterprises with import and foreign exchange purchase needs are advised to lock in exchange rate costs through forward contracts, and settlement enterprises can conduct spot settlement at the upper edge of the exchange rate range [2]. Stock Index - The Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points was in line with expectations. After the interest rate cut, the bond yield and the US dollar index first declined and then rose. The stock index may face callback pressure due to the fulfillment of positive news, but the downside space is limited, and it is expected to turn into a shock after the callback [3]. Treasury Bond - The bond market was less affected by the Fed's interest rate cut. There is a low expectation of domestic interest rate cuts, but the central bank may use other tools to inject liquidity. Long positions can be bought on dips, and attention should be paid to the central bank's actions [4]. Container Shipping - The near - month contracts of the container shipping index have fallen as expected. The 10 - contract long positions at high levels can be held, and it is recommended to wait and see. The 12 - contract can pay attention to the low - buying opportunities at 1550 - 1600 points [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Precious metals are undergoing high - level adjustments. The medium - to - long - term trend may be bullish, but there is significant short - term adjustment pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously [6][8]. - Copper: The copper price has fallen after the Fed's interest rate cut. Its fundamentals do not support further strengthening, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [8][9]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish. It is recommended to short alumina at high prices [11][12][13]. - Zinc: The zinc price fluctuates at the bottom, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand remaining to be observed. It is recommended to wait and see the LME inventory approaching the extreme value or sell out - of - the - money put options [15]. - Nickel, Stainless Steel: The prices of nickel and stainless steel follow the macro - level guidance and are expected to be volatile [16]. - Tin: The tin price is expected to fluctuate around 274,000 yuan per ton, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [17]. - Lead: The lead price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, with the supply relatively weak and the demand general [18]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel price may face a callback due to the weakening of macro - drivers and the lack of upward drivers in the fundamentals, but the hot - rolled coil's apparent demand is relatively good, and there is still some expectation for the traditional peak - season demand [21]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate, with the market in a tight - balance state, and the inventory shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic [22]. - Coking Coal and Coke: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal and coke, and they are not recommended as short - allocation varieties in the black series. The coal and coke market may be affected by macro - sentiment, and attention should be paid to downstream inventory replenishment before the National Day [23][24]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: It is recommended to try long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese at the cost - line level, as their production profit is declining and the supply pressure may decrease [24][25]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The oil price is expected to continue to run in a narrow range in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds should be grasped. The price is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply, EIA reports, and the Fed's interest rate meeting [28]. - LPG: The LPG price is expected to be volatile, with the supply remaining loose and the demand showing a seasonal decline [29]. - PTA - PX: PX - TA is expected to be volatile and bullish due to frequent maintenance rumors on the supply side. The polyester peak - season expectation is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and expand the processing margin of the PTA01 contract below 280 [29][30][31]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol is expected to be in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rallies. The supply lacks elasticity, and the downward space is limited [33][34]. - Methanol: It is recommended to reduce long positions in methanol due to the large port pressure and the difficulty in resolving the 01 contract contradiction [35]. - PP: The PP price has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to go long on dips as the supply pressure is relieved and the demand is in the recovery stage [36][37]. - PE: The PE price is expected to be in a shock pattern, with limited upward and downward space, as the demand recovery is slow and the inventory removal is slow [40]. - PVC: It is recommended to wait and see for PVC due to the weak domestic demand, high inventory, and the influence of macro - factors such as fiscal and monetary policies and anti - involution hype [42]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in a shock state, and it is recommended to wait and see. Their fundamentals are still weak, and they mainly follow the cost - side fluctuations [43][44]. - Fuel Oil: It is recommended to try short - selling the cracking profit of fuel oil. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable [44]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It is recommended to try short - selling the far - month high - low sulfur spread of low - sulfur fuel oil. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak [45]. - Asphalt: It is recommended to try long - allocation for asphalt. The supply is increasing, the demand is affected by rainfall, and the inventory is being removed. It may have a chance to rise in the future driven by the peak - season demand [45]. - Urea: The urea price is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850, and it is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity. The domestic supply is abundant, and the demand is weak, but the second - batch export may provide some support [46]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash: The soda ash price is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory limiting the price increase. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the new production capacity of Yuanxing Phase II [47]. - Glass: The glass price lacks a clear trend, with high inventory and weak demand restricting the price increase. The supply may have a slight increase, and attention should be paid to the supply - side ignition expectation, cost - side coal price, and demand seasonality [48]. - Caustic Soda: The caustic soda price is expected to follow the spot rhythm, with the supply fluctuating due to normal maintenance, the cost remaining stable, and the non - aluminum downstream demand expected to recover seasonally [50]. - Paper Pulp: The pulp price is expected to be in a shock state. The Fed's interest rate cut is a "preventive interest rate cut" dominated by the cooling of the employment market. Investors should pay attention to inflation stickiness, economic data, and the Fed's policy rhythm [50].
金融期货早评-20250918
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-09-18 03:14