农产品日报：现货价格整体下调，豆粕偏弱震荡-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the粕类 (bean meal and rapeseed meal) strategy is neutral [4] - The rating for the corn strategy is cautiously bearish [6] Core Viewpoints - The adjustment in the report is slightly higher than market expectations, leading to a decline in US soybean prices. Future focus should be on the changes in the new season of US soybeans. In the Chinese market, the strengthening of Brazilian premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, domestic soybean supply remains abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US policies [3] - For the corn market, the supply of new season corn is increasing, and the market is generally in a loose state. Feed enterprises are mainly using inventory, and both feed and deep - processing enterprises are waiting to buy at lower prices. Future focus should be on the listing and acquisition of new season corn [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 粕类 (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3002 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton (-1.28%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2460 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton (-2.30%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3010 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2620 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian Report: The Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association maintained the 2025 soybean production forecast at 170.3 million tons and export forecast at 109.5 million tons. The soybean crushing volume forecast was increased by 400,000 tons to 58.5 million tons, driving an increase in bean meal production forecast to 45.1 million tons and soybean oil production forecast to 11.7 million tons. Brazilian soybean exports from September 1 - 12 were 2.718 million tons, with a daily average of 272,000 tons, a 6.5% year - on - year decrease [2] Market Analysis - The report adjustment was slightly higher than market expectations, causing a decline in US soybean prices. The strengthening of Brazilian premiums has increased import costs, supporting domestic soybean prices. However, domestic soybean supply is abundant, and downstream inventories are high. Attention should be paid to Sino - US policies [3] Strategy - Neutral [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2161 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.23%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2453 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.41%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazilian Corn: As of September 13, the harvest progress of Brazil's 2024/25 second - season corn was 99.1%. The planting progress of the 2025/26 first - season corn was 14.7% [4] Market Analysis - The supply of new season corn is increasing, and the market is generally in a loose state. Feed enterprises are mainly using inventory, and both feed and deep - processing enterprises are waiting to buy at lower prices. Future focus should be on the listing and acquisition of new season corn [5] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [6]