油料日报：新豆准备上市，花生优质供应释放缓慢-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for soybeans is neutral [3][5] - The investment rating for peanuts is neutral [3][5] 2. Core Views - The soybean market is at a critical juncture between new and old grains, with new beans in Northeast China expected to be listed on a large - scale next week. The overall growth of soybeans is good, and there are expectations of a bumper harvest. The price of early - maturing new beans is not yet representative, and attention should be paid to the progress of new grain listing. The soybean futures price has declined, and the spot basis has increased [1][2] - The peanut market has a slow release of high - quality new peanut supplies due to weather factors, while the supply of new peanuts with poor moisture and quality may increase. The demand for peanuts is lackluster, with weakened double - festival stocking effects, reluctance of traders to purchase in large quantities, and major oil mills not starting seasonal procurement. The peanut futures price is oscillating strongly, and the spot price has a slight increase [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybean No. 1 2511 contract yesterday was 3895.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.00 yuan/ton (-0.74%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible soybean spot is A11 + 325, an increase of 29 (+32.14%) from the previous day. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable compared to the previous day [1] - Market Information: High - oil soybeans in the Northeast soybean market are being listed in small quantities. Due to rainy weather, the purchase volume is small. Most enterprises plan to start purchasing after the large - scale listing at the end of the month. The overall growth of soybeans is good, with some areas having average growth, and there are expectations of a bumper harvest of new grains [1] Soybean Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7822.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 26.00 yuan/ton (+0.33%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts is 8300.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.00 yuan/ton (+0.12%), and the spot basis is PK10 + 378.00, a month - on - month decrease of 26.00 (-6.44%). The average price of general - quality peanuts in the national peanut market is 4.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/jin [3] - Market Information: The release of high - quality new peanut supplies is slow due to weather. The double - festival stocking effect is weakened, traders are reluctant to purchase in large quantities, and major oil mills have not started seasonal procurement. The demand side lacks support, and the market is waiting for price clarity [3][4] Peanut Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5] Peanut Risk - The risk for peanuts is the weakening of demand [5]