9月美联储议息会议解读：对宽松的认识还不够

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4%-4.25%[4] - Slightly over half of the FOMC officials anticipate at least two more rate cuts this year, while only one cut is expected next year[4] - The decision to cut rates was based on a "shift in the balance of risks," with employment growth slowing and the unemployment rate edging up[4] Employment and Inflation Outlook - The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in August, the highest since late 2021, indicating a shift towards a surplus in the labor market[7] - The Fed maintained its 2025 unemployment rate forecast at 4.5% and PCE inflation at 3%[10] - Inflation has increased, with commodity prices contributing significantly to this rise, although the increases are expected to be moderate and possibly one-time shocks[4][10] Economic Growth Projections - The Fed revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast upward to 1.6% and 2026 to 1.8%[11] - Economic activity is described as slowing, with consumer spending declining in most regions due to economic uncertainty and tariffs[11] - Rate cuts may lower credit costs, potentially boosting consumer confidence and stabilizing the economy next year[11] Market Reactions and Risks - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets initially rose but then fell, with bond yields increasing and the dollar index fluctuating[13] - Risks include higher-than-expected inflation, tighter monetary policy from the Fed, and a sharper-than-anticipated economic downturn[16]