宏观点评：美联储重启降息，怎么看、怎么办？-20250918

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0-4.25%, in line with market expectations, marking the first rate cut in 9 months[2] - The dot plot indicates a total of 3 rate cuts expected by the end of the year, with a slight upward adjustment in economic forecasts[2] - Powell described the rate cut as a "risk-mitigating" measure, suggesting a neutral overall tone from the Fed[1] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, major asset prices exhibited a V-shaped reversal, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices declining by 0.1% and 0.3% respectively, while the Dow Jones increased by 0.6%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 6.1 basis points to 4.09%, and the dollar index increased by 0.4% to 97.0[4] - Market expectations for further rate cuts remained largely unchanged, with an approximately 80% probability for cuts in October and December[4] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - The Fed's GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027 were slightly upgraded, with 2025's GDP growth now projected at 1.6% compared to the previous 1.4%[3] - Unemployment rate predictions for 2026 and 2027 were slightly lowered, while inflation forecasts for 2026 were adjusted upward[3] - There is a noted discrepancy between the Fed's emphasis on employment risks and its optimistic economic forecasts, which is unusual[3] Group 4: Implications for Domestic Policy - The Fed's rate cut opens up space for further monetary easing in China, with an increased likelihood of domestic rate cuts in Q4[8] - The synchronization of monetary policy cycles between the U.S. and China may alleviate exchange rate pressures on China's monetary easing[9] - The pace and extent of future rate cuts in China will depend on domestic economic performance indicators[9]