格林大华期货：早盘提示：铁合金-20250918

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black metal (silicon - ferromanganese and silicon) sector is "oscillating and bullish" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The overall view of silicon - ferromanganese and silicon is bullish in the short - term, with the market trading on policy expectations [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - The SM2601 contract closed at 5990, up 0.77% from the previous trading day's close; the SF2511 contract closed at 5766, up 1.16% from the previous trading day's close [1] Important Information - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range to 4.00% - 4.25% by 25 basis points on Wednesday, the first rate cut this year and the resumption of rate cuts after 9 months [1] - On September 16, the First President's Office Meeting of the Third Session of the Jiangsu Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Tangshan, Hebei. Relevant initiatives and suggestions were reviewed and passed [1] - On September 17, Li Zhen, Deputy Director of the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, said that state - owned enterprises would be promoted to carry out strategic and professional restructuring and integration [1] - From January to August, Hebei ranked first in the country in crude steel production with 14198.63 million tons, and Jiangsu ranked second with 8119.29 million tons [1] Market Logic - Recently, downstream inquiries in the manganese - silicon market have been active, and market procurement demand has increased. Manganese ore prices have slightly increased. With the approaching of the National Day holiday, downstream procurement demand has rebounded. Although Hebei Iron and Steel's steel procurement inquiry price has dropped significantly, downstream low - price procurement demand has increased, and manganese ore cost support is strong, so producers are reluctant to lower prices. The final pricing of Hebei Iron and Steel's September steel procurement should be noted. For silicon - iron, Hebei Iron and Steel's September silicon - iron tender price is 5800 yuan/ton (including tax and acceptance at the factory), a decrease of 230 yuan/ton compared with August, and the procurement quantity is 3280 tons, an increase of 130 tons compared with August. There is strong short - term support below, and the overall view of double - silicon is bullish [1] Trading Strategy - The short - term market trades on policy expectations and is viewed bullishly [1]