2025年9月美联储议息会议点评：“风险管理降息”背后的谨慎

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's September FOMC meeting resulted in a 25 basis point cut to the federal funds target rate, marking the first rate cut of the year, with expectations for two more cuts in 2025 [1][8] - The FOMC statement highlighted the risks of slowing employment growth, removing previous language indicating a solid labor market, and introducing concerns about downside risks to employment [1][8] - Economic projections were adjusted, with GDP forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 being raised, while unemployment rates for 2026 and 2027 were slightly lowered [9][10] Group 2 - Chairman Powell described the rate cut as a "risk management cut," indicating that there was no need for a significant reduction in rates and that future rate paths remain uncertain [2][13] - Powell noted that while the unemployment rate is still low, it has begun to rise, and employment growth is slowing due to factors such as reduced immigration and declining labor force participation [2][13] - Inflation expectations were adjusted, with Powell suggesting that the impact of tariffs on inflation is likely to be temporary, although there are still concerns about persistent inflation risks [2][13] Group 3 - Market reactions included a rise in U.S. Treasury yields and mixed performance in the stock market, reflecting the cautious tone of Powell regarding future rate cuts [3][14] - Following the FOMC announcement, market confidence in two additional rate cuts this year increased, with the probability of the federal funds rate reaching a range of 3.5%-3.75% by year-end rising to 79.9% [15][16] Group 4 - Three potential scenarios for future rate cuts were outlined: 1. Soft landing scenario, predicting two more cuts this year and three in 2026, with a stable economic outlook [4][19] 2. Recession scenario, where significant economic deterioration could lead to a larger cut of 50 basis points [4][19] 3. High inflation scenario, where persistent high inflation would necessitate maintaining higher rates for a longer period [4][19] - The soft landing scenario is considered the most likely, while the probabilities for recession and high inflation scenarios are viewed as lower [20]