一次风险缓释的美联储降息美联储议息会议点评

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate target range to 4.00%-4.25%, down from 4.25%-4.50%[5] - This marks a total reduction of 50 basis points (BP) in September 2024, followed by two reductions of 25 BP each in November and December 2024[5] - The Fed is expected to continue easing, with two more rate cuts anticipated in October and December 2025, bringing the median forecast for the federal funds rate down to 3.6%[5] Economic Forecasts - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6%, up from 1.4%[6] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, while the 2026 forecast has been slightly adjusted down to 4.4%[6] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 is maintained at 3%, with core PCE at 3.1%[6] Internal Disagreements - There are notable divisions within the Fed, with varying opinions on the extent of rate cuts, including one member advocating for a 50 BP cut[6] - Recent personnel changes have intensified these divisions, with new appointments and court rulings affecting the Fed's internal dynamics[6] Inflation and Employment Concerns - The Fed acknowledges rising inflation, with current rates around 2.9%, and highlights the potential impact of tariffs contributing 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points to inflation[6] - Employment growth is slowing, with the unemployment rate reaching 4.3% in August 2025, marking a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[6] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical tensions, and global economic fluctuations[6]