9月美联储议息会议点评2025年第6期：兑现降息预期，否认降息周期

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve announced a rate cut of 25 basis points in September, lowering the federal funds rate range from 4.25%-4.5% to 4%-4.25%[4] - The updated dot plot indicates an increase in expected rate cuts for 2025 from 2 to 3 times, while maintaining 1 cut for both 2026 and 2027[3] Economic Forecast Adjustments - The Fed raised its 2025 GDP growth forecast by 0.2% to 1.6% and the core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 by 0.2% to 2.6%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2026 was adjusted down from 4.5% to 4.4%[6] Risk Assessment - The Fed noted a weakening transmission of high tariffs to inflation levels and emphasized the softening labor market[2] - The risks to employment have increased, leading to the decision to cut rates[5] Market Implications - Post-rate cut, investor risk pricing may shift towards U.S. inflation risks and macroeconomic risks in the Eurozone[2] - The Fed's rate cut is characterized as a "risk management" cut, indicating no systemic economic downturn is anticipated[8] Consumer and Credit Data - U.S. household consumption remains better than expected, with the unemployment rate still low, suggesting a resilient economy[9] - As of August, corporate credit growth reached a 27-month high at 4%, indicating strong bank lending activity[9]