Changjiang Securities·2025-09-18 04:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and it is maintained [7]. Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of -175 million yuan in Q2 2025, which is a 51% increase quarter-on-quarter; however, the non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was -671 million yuan, reflecting a 177% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][4]. - The company is expected to see an increase in self-supply rates and improvements in production costs as it enters a phase of accelerated resource release [9]. - The lithium price has been declining, which has pressured the company's profitability, with a gross margin of 9.65% in Q2 2025, down 3.3 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's lithium salt business gross margin was 8.36%, down 3.39 percentage points year-on-year, while the lithium battery business gross margin was 14.17%, up 4.29 percentage points year-on-year [9]. - The company recorded a non-recurring income of 382 million yuan in H1 2025, primarily from the disposal of non-current assets and government subsidies [9]. - In Q2 2025, the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 65,300 yuan/ton, down 14% quarter-on-quarter, and the average price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide was 64,800 yuan/ton, down 8% quarter-on-quarter [9]. Production and Cost Outlook - The company plans to produce 30,000-35,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2025, with a long-term operating cost expected to reach 65,430 USD/ton LCE (approximately 47,000 yuan/ton LCE) [9]. - The Goulamina lithium concentrate project is expected to commence production in December 2024, with promising profitability due to its resource scale and quality advantages [9]. - The Mariana salt lake project has already commenced production, with expectations for stable supply of lithium chloride products in H2 2025 [9]. Market Position and Future Prospects - The company is positioned as a leading resource player with a faster increase in self-supply rates and continuous cost optimization, which is expected to gradually improve profitability [9]. - The company is also increasing its focus on battery business, with the largest global capacity for lithium metal, indicating significant growth potential in the future [9].