美联储9月如期降息，年内或还有两次降息

Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in both October and December, totaling a 75 basis point reduction for the year, which is higher than the previous forecast of 50 basis points[1] - The September meeting marked the first rate cut of the year, following a 25 basis point cut in December of the previous year[1] Economic Indicators - The Fed has raised its GDP growth forecasts for 2025-2027 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6% and 1.8%, respectively, and by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for 2027[3] - The unemployment rate forecast for this year remains unchanged at 4.5%, with slight downward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3%[4] Inflation and Tariff Impact - The Fed estimates that tariffs contribute 0.3-0.4 percentage points to core PCE inflation, but the impact is expected to diminish[2] - The core PCE inflation forecast for 2026 has been raised by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[2] Labor Market Concerns - There is an increased focus on the risks to the labor market, with the Fed noting that job growth has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen, although it remains low[1] - The Fed's statement emphasizes the balance between employment and inflation, indicating a shift in focus from inflation alone[1] Retail and Industrial Production - Retail sales showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6% in August, which was better than market expectations[4] - Industrial production turned positive in August, with manufacturing output increasing by 0.24% month-on-month[6]