方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's September interest - rate meeting is approaching. The market is pricing in the possibility of three rate cuts by the Fed this year, and the US dollar index is weakening. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" season in China is coming, and the demand for non - ferrous metals may improve marginally. However, the upward space still requires positive resonance between fundamentals and macro factors. The realization of rate cuts will affect the subsequent market rhythm. If the rate cut is 25bp as expected, there may be profit - taking; if it exceeds expectations, the market may be stronger[12][13]. - Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and investment suggestions. For example, copper prices are expected to have an upward - moving price center, and it is recommended to buy on dips; zinc prices are in a range - bound pattern, and it is advisable to be slightly bullish on dips; the aluminum industry chain is in a complex situation, and different products have different strategies such as temporary observation, short - position holding, and long - position reduction[3][4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: The "central bank super - week" is here. The Fed's rate - cut expectation trading may continue, and non - ferrous metals are fluctuating strongly. China's August economic data shows "slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption", and the expectation of a new round of policy easing is rising. The US consumer confidence is at a four - month low, further consolidating the expectation of a Fed rate cut this week. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month[12]. - Investment Suggestions for Different Metals: - Copper: The price center is expected to move up. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 81000 - 82000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 79000 - 80000 yuan/ton. Consider selling near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options[3][14]. - Zinc: In a range - bound pattern. Consider being slightly bullish on dips, with an upper pressure range of 22800 - 23200 and a lower support range of 21600 - 21800[4][14]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: For aluminum, it is recommended to observe temporarily, with an upper pressure range of 21300 - 21700 and a lower support range of 20200 - 20500; for alumina, short positions can be held cautiously, with an upper pressure range of 3500 - 3700 and a lower support range of 2700 - 2900; for recycled aluminum alloy, long positions can be reduced, with an upper pressure range of 20800 - 21000 and a lower support range of 20000 - 20300[5][17]. - Tin: Observe before the Fed's interest - rate meeting, with an upper pressure range of 280000 - 290000 and a lower support range of 260000 - 265000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options[6][7]. - Lead: Long positions can be held, with a short - term support at 16700 - 16800 and an upper pressure at 17400 - 17500. A wide - range option straddle strategy can also be considered[8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: For nickel, adopt a dip - buying strategy, with an upper pressure at 125000 - 128000 yuan and a lower support at 118000 - 120000 yuan; for stainless steel, be slightly bullish on dips, with a support at 12700 - 12800 and an upper pressure at 13000 - 13200[9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented. For example, copper closed at 80560 with a decline of 0.40%, zinc closed at 22280 with an increase of 0.11%, etc.[19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Different non - ferrous metal contracts have different net long - short positions, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors. For example, the alumina (AO2601) contract has a 1.81% increase, with a strong short position of the main force, and is affected by non - main - force funds[21]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of non - ferrous metals are provided. For example, the Yangtze River Non - ferrous copper spot price is 80690 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.80%, and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 0 zinc spot average price is 22180 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.27%[23][25]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Relevant charts are presented for each non - ferrous metal, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. For example, for copper, there are charts of exchange copper inventory changes and SMM social copper inventory changes[27][29]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various charts related to non - ferrous metal arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the Shanghai - copper and London - copper premium/discount[61]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to non - ferrous metal options are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and changes in trading volume and open interest. For example, for copper, there are charts of copper option historical volatility and copper option weighted implied volatility[77].