日度策略参考-20250918

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term) [1] - Bearish: Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel (long - term), Black Metal, Soda Ash, Pig, Container Shipping to Europe [1] - Neutral: Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel (short - term), Threaded Steel, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coal, Pulp, Log, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Pure Benzene Styrene, PE, PVC, PP [1] Core Views - The market trading volume has shrunk but remains above 2 trillion this week. With numerous macro events, investors should control risks in stock index positions and focus on adjusting and going long [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - The approaching Fed rate cut in September supports the gold price, while the Fed's interest - rate meeting affects the prices of other commodities such as copper, aluminum, etc [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Control risks in positions and adjust to go long [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the rise [1] Precious metals - Gold: Bullish, supported by the approaching Fed rate cut in September [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, but beware of increased volatility [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Pressured by the approaching Fed meeting, but the downside is expected to be limited [1] - Aluminum: At risk of correction due to some long - position profit - taking [1] - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but the price is close to the cost line, so the downside is limited [1] - Zinc: At risk of short - term correction due to increasing social inventories [1] - Nickel: Short - term shock is strong, but more news is needed to break through upwards. Long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term shock is strong, but long - term, the surplus of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1] Industrial silicon and related products - Industrial silicon: Capacity is expected to decline in the long - term, and terminal installation willingness is low [1] - Polysilicon: There are expectations of production cuts [1] - Lithium carbonate: The expected resumption of production in a lithium mine and limited subsequent replenishment space [1] Black metals - Threaded steel: Valuation returns to neutral, industry drive is unclear, and macro drive is positive [1] - Hot - rolled coil: Similar to threaded steel [1] - Iron ore: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery and possible weakening demand, and high inventory [1] - Black metal: Supply surplus pressure persists, and the price is under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1] - Soda ash: Weak reality, large supply surplus pressure, and price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: The bottom support is relatively strong, and the price is expected to rise in the future. Consider partial profit - taking for long positions [1] - Coke: Bullish, with similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: The flood in Malaysia's Sabah state brings supply - side disturbances, and it is recommended to go long or buy out - of - the - money call options [1] - Soybean oil: The de - stocking expectation in the fourth quarter remains unchanged, and it is bullish in the long - term. Consider going long on volatility [1] - Rapeseed oil: Consider the positive spread strategy of contract 11 - 1 [1] - Cotton: New cotton is expected to be abundant, and the acquisition game during the new - cotton acquisition period will be the focus [1] - Sugar: The price is expected to be weak in shock, but the short - term downside is limited [1] - Corn: The C01 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term [1] - Soybean meal: The overall expectation is neutral, and the cost side provides support [1] Energy and chemical products - Crude oil: Affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed rate - cut expectations [1] - Fuel oil: Similar to crude oil [1] - Natural rubber: Supported by raw material costs, and the number of warehouse receipts is significantly reduced compared to the same period in previous years [1] - BR rubber: The market is in shock. Pay attention to inventory de - stocking and autumn equipment maintenance [1] - PTA: Production increases, the basis drops rapidly, and the downstream polyester operating rate rises to 91% [1] - Ethylene glycol: The basis strengthens, but the new device brings pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices return, and the willingness to deliver warehouse receipts weakens [1] - Pure benzene styrene: Supply increases, and the domestic import pressure of pure benzene rises [1] - PE: The price is in shock and weak [1] - PVC: The supply pressure increases, and the price is in shock and weak [1] - PP: The peak - season demand is not met, and the inventory accumulates [1]