EIA周度报告点评-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report implies a relatively bearish outlook for the oil market [8] 2. Report's Core View - The EIA report for the week is a mixed bag, with a significant decline in crude oil inventory exceeding market expectations and a substantial drop in gasoline inventory. However, more forward - looking data shows weakness, such as the decline in refinery operating rates indicating the start of autumn maintenance, and the poor performance of distillates leading to a counter - seasonal increase in inventory, which may promote refinery maintenance. Overall, it is a relatively bearish report [8] 3. Summary by Related Data 3.1 Inventory Data - As of September 12, U.S. commercial crude oil total inventory was 415.361 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 9.285 million barrels, far exceeding the expected decrease of 857,000 barrels. Cushing inventory decreased by 296,000 barrels, and strategic reserve inventory increased by 504,000 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 2.347 million barrels, contrary to the expected increase of 1 million barrels, while distillate inventory increased by 4.046 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1 million barrels [2][3] - The total inventory of the U.S. crude oil chain increased by 1.675 million barrels [3] 3.2 Production, Import, and Processing Data - U.S. crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day to 13.482 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil net imports decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day [3] - U.S. crude oil processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day [3] 3.3 Demand Data - U.S. crude oil terminal apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 217,250 barrels per day to 20.671 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. gasoline apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.91875 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. distillate apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 86,500 barrels per day to 3.72675 million barrels per day [3] - U.S. jet fuel apparent demand (four - week smoothing) decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.70275 million barrels per day [3] 3.4 Market Impact and Analysis - The large - scale decline in U.S. crude oil inventory last week was mainly due to a significant increase in exports, resulting in a large decrease in net imports. The single - week export data reached 5.277 million barrels per day, a new high since 2024. However, the domestic refinery operating rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3%, indicating the gradual start of traditional autumn maintenance [4] - In the traditional autumn harvest consumption season, distillate demand decreased instead of increasing, causing inventory to rise during the period of declining refinery operating rates. The current large increase in distillate inventory is counter - seasonal, which may affect distillate cracking and accelerate the progress of refinery autumn maintenance [6] - After the release of the EIA report, oil prices fell slightly and further declined after the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting [8]