黑色建材日报：降息靴子落地，多空博弈趋缓-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is under inventory pressure, with increased contradictions in the building materials fundamentals and pressured prices, while the plate demand remains resilient, and the price is relatively strong. After the Fed's interest rate cut, policies and expectations support steel prices. The iron ore market has significant growth in global shipments, a slight decline in arrivals, high pig iron production, and falling steel mill profits. The coking coal production resumes slowly, and the double - coking spot rebounds. The power coal market has rising prices in the producing areas due to increased demand, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and supply - abundant in the long - term [1][3][5][7] Market Analysis Steel - Futures and spot: Steel futures prices fluctuated. Spot steel sales were generally weak, with better low - price transactions. The national building materials sales volume was 10,270 tons. Steel production and inventory increased. - Supply and demand logic: Building materials face increased fundamental contradictions and price pressure due to inventory. Plate demand is resilient, and prices are relatively strong. Fed's interest rate cut, anti - involution policies, holiday restocking expectations, and environmental protection policies support steel prices [1] Iron Ore - Futures and spot: Iron ore futures prices fluctuated. In the spot market, prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties in Tangshan ports had slight fluctuations. Traders' quoting enthusiasm was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for刚需. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 1.265 million tons, a 9.25% decrease from the previous day. The forward spot trading volume was 965,000 tons (7 transactions), a 21.54% decrease, with 545,000 tons from mines. - Supply and demand logic: Global iron ore shipments increased significantly, arrivals decreased slightly, pig iron production was high, and steel mill profits continued to decline. Considering the holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption is resilient. Attention should be paid to the impact of floating cargo volume on arrivals and steel mills' pre - holiday restocking rhythm [3] Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - Futures and spot: Double - coking futures main contracts fluctuated. After the coke price cut, coking profits shrank, and production was relatively stable. This week, coking coal production growth slowed, inventory was basically decreasing, some mines were affected by environmental protection and over - production inspections, and Mongolian coal imports remained high. - Supply and demand logic: For coke, after the price cut, production in most areas was stable except in Tangshan. Downstream demand was resilient. For coking coal, downstream restocking demand was released before the National Day, inventory decreased continuously. With the Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policy expectations, double - coking is expected to be slightly strong in the short - term [5] Thermal Coal - Futures and spot: In the producing areas, coal prices continued to rise. Demand from the chemical and cement industries and civilian demand increased. With the rise in port prices, the purchasing enthusiasm of platforms and coal yards increased, and most mines had more coal - pulling trucks and a strong willingness to raise prices. In the port market, sentiment was good, some traders were reluctant to sell due to high shipping costs and tight resources, and prices of some high - quality coal varieties increased. The price decline of domestic coal narrowed, imported high - calorie coal was stable, and low - calorie coal prices rebounded, narrowing the price gap between domestic and imported coal. - Supply and demand logic: Production in the producing areas is gradually recovering, and daily power coal consumption is decreasing. The price will fluctuate in the short - term, and the supply will be abundant in the long - term. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7] Strategies Steel - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [2] Iron Ore - Unilateral: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [4] Double - Coking - Coking coal: Oscillation - Coke: Oscillation - Others: No cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, or option strategies [6]