铅锌日评20250918：沪铅震荡整理，沪锌或偏强整理-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise but not fall. However, it has not had a substantial impact on refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead has a slight decline. The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and the peak - season effect is not evident. The supply is tightened in the short - term, and lead prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but the limited improvement in demand may suppress the upside space [1]. - For zinc, refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production profit and enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and the output shows an increasing trend. The demand has improved, and the zinc ingot export window may open. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the back structure support the zinc price. After the interest - rate cut expectation is fulfilled, Shanghai zinc is expected to strengthen in the short term, but the upside space may be limited due to fundamental constraints [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 16,950 yuan/ton with no change. The closing price of the lead futures main contract is 17,100 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The lead basis is - 150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 lead premium is - 46.43 dollars/ton, and the LME 3 - 15 lead premium is - 70.50 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the lead futures active contract is 44,958 lots, down 18.23%. The open interest is 42,195 lots, down 6.43%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.07, down 12.61% [1]. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is 225,350 tons with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 2,005 tons, down 0.07% [1]. News - The construction of the Zhugongtang lead - zinc mine project in Hezhang County has made phased breakthroughs. The main project of the concentrator has entered the steel - structure construction stage. The project is expected to invest 762 million yuan this year and strive to complete the main systems construction by the end of December and achieve trial production in the first mining area [1]. - On September 16, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 49.61 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 277 lots to 165,625 lots [1]. Zinc Price and Spread - The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The closing price of the zinc futures main contract is 22,280 yuan/ton, up 0.11%. The zinc basis is - 95 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 zinc premium is 24.36 dollars/ton [1]. Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of the zinc futures active contract is 96,254 lots, down 0.40%. The open interest is 78,094 lots, down 8.11%. The trading - to - open - interest ratio is 1.23, up 8.40% [1]. Inventory - The LME zinc inventory is 48,975 tons with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 52,720 tons, up 1.05% [1]. News - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed a financing and concentrate purchase agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore for the Prieska project. Orion Minerals plans to achieve the first production of the Prieska Copper Zinc Mine project at the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year [1]. - On September 16, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 41.33 dollars/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2,659 lots [1]. Investment Strategy - For lead, investors with existing long positions should protect their profits [1]. - For zinc, investors can try to go long at low prices with a light position [1]