甲醇日评：低位震荡-20250918

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The current methanol spot price is in a low - level oscillation. Due to high port inventories and low downstream profits in the inland, the upside space is limited. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient because of high absolute port inventory levels and weak restocking motivation of MTO enterprises. However, considering that the current spot price in East China has fallen to a low level and the price difference with the inland is also low, the room for further decline is limited. With the upcoming traditional downstream peak season, it may help relieve the current inventory pressure. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Methanol Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On September 17, 2025, MA01 closed at 2376 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) from the previous day; MA05 remained unchanged at 2397 yuan/ton; MA09 closed at 2371 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.04%) [1]. - Spot Prices: Among different regions, prices in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton (0.42%) to 2390 yuan/ton, while prices in Guangdong decreased by 12.5 yuan/ton (- 0.55%) to 2275 yuan/ton, and prices in Inner Mongolia decreased by 15 yuan/ton (- 0.70%) to 2120 yuan/ton. Prices in some regions such as Shaanxi, Sichuan - Chongqing, and Hubei remained unchanged [1]. - Basis: The basis of Taicang spot - MA was - 96 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. b) Upstream Costs - Coal Spot Prices: On September 17, 2025, the price of Bohai Rim Q5500 increased by 10 yuan/ton (1.99%) to 512.5 yuan/ton, the price of Datong Q5500 increased by 7.5 yuan/ton (1.32%) to 575 yuan/ton, and the price of Yulin Q6000 increased by 12.5 yuan/ton (2.16%) to 592.5 yuan/ton [1]. - Industrial Natural Gas Prices: The prices in Hohhot and Chongqing remained unchanged at 3.21 yuan/cubic meter and 3.14 yuan/cubic meter respectively [1]. c) Profit Situation - Methanol Production Profit: The profit of coal - to - methanol decreased by 6.3 yuan/ton (- 1.42%) to 436.3 yuan/ton, while the profit of natural gas - to - methanol remained unchanged at - 362 yuan/ton [1]. - Downstream Profit: The profit of East China MTO increased by 44.5 yuan/ton (7.10%) to - 582.57 yuan/ton, the profit of acetic acid increased by 24.15 yuan/ton (5.03%) to 504.04 yuan/ton, and the profit of MTBE increased by 93.6 yuan/ton (31.46%) to 391.12 yuan/ton [1]. d) Information - Domestic Information: The main methanol contract MA2601 was weakly oscillating, opening at 2380 yuan/ton, closing at 2376 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 387,439 lots, and the open interest was 836,608 lots, with shrinking volume and increasing positions [1]. - Foreign Information: Two methanol plants in Southeast Asia with a total capacity of 2.6 million tons are under maintenance, and a small amount of Chinese goods are exported to Southeast Asia [1].