国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The FOMC meeting was generally in line with expectations [2][6]. - Silver: It is in a state of oscillatory adjustment [2][5]. - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut limits the price decline [2][10]. - Zinc: It is in a state of oscillatory consolidation [2][13]. - Lead: The reduction in inventory supports the price to oscillate [2][16]. - Tin: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation [2][19]. - Aluminum: It is in a state of range - bound oscillation; Alumina rebounds from the bottom; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][24]. - Nickel: The contradiction in the smelting end is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks in the ore end [2][27]. - Stainless steel: There is a game between long - and short - term logics, and the steel price may oscillate [2][27]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of various gold products such as Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, etc., showed varying degrees of decline. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed, and the inventory of some gold products increased while others decreased. The spread and exchange rate also had corresponding changes [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fed was hawkish and dovish, and gold prices turned down after hitting a new high. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, acknowledged the weakening of the labor market, and mentioned rising inflation [5][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of gold is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Silver - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of various silver products such as Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, etc., declined. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed, and the inventory of some silver products decreased. The spread also had corresponding changes [5]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of silver is 0, indicating a neutral state [8]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Copper's main contract and LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Copper's main contract decreased, while that of LME Copper 3M increased. The inventory of both decreased, and the spread also changed [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Peru's copper production in July increased by 2% year - on - year, and the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia was still shut down. Panama was preparing to negotiate the resumption of the CP copper mine. The copper production of Codelco and Escondida increased year - on - year in July. China's copper production in August increased slightly month - on - month, and the expected production in September decreased [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral state [12]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Zinc's main contract and LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume of Shanghai Zinc's main contract decreased, while that of LME Zinc decreased. The inventory of Shanghai Zinc increased, and the spread also changed [13]. - News: Powell said that the call for a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut was not high, and the employment decline had become a substantial risk [13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral state [13]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Lead's main contract and LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased slightly. The trading volume and positions of both decreased, and the inventory of both decreased. The spread also changed [16]. - News: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the signals were hawkish and dovish, causing major assets to oscillate [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral state [17]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Tin's main contract and LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased. The trading volume of Shanghai Tin's main contract decreased, while that of LME Tin decreased slightly. The inventory of Shanghai Tin decreased, and the spread also changed [20]. - Macro and Industry News: The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the US retail sales in August increased month - on - month [21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral state [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract, LME Aluminum 3M, and Shanghai Alumina's main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. The inventory, spread, and other data of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and related products also had corresponding changes [24]. - Comprehensive News: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the Bank of Canada also cut interest rates by 25 basis points [26]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0, indicating a neutral state [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing prices of Shanghai Nickel's main contract and stainless - steel main contract changed. The trading volume and positions of both changed. The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industrial chains also had corresponding changes [27]. - Macro and Industry News: An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting project entered the trial - production stage. There were environmental violations in the IMIP industrial park. Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period. The RKAB production approved by the Indonesian government in 2025 was higher than that in 2024. Some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia were shut down due to losses. Some steel mills in Shandong started maintenance [27][31]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0, indicating a neutral state [33].