农产品日报：短期出栏压力持续，猪价偏弱运行-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors: Cautiously bearish [2][5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the pig market is difficult to change. However, in the medium and long - term, attention should be paid to the reduction of pig production capacity and national policy changes. For the egg market, short - term consumption demand is strong due to the double festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be monitored [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2511 contract was 13,000 yuan/ton, a change of - 160.00 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.94 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.23 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.21 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.18 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.66 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.10 yuan/kg. - Wholesale prices: On September 17, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 117.87, down 0.13 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 19.73 yuan/kg, down 0.8% [1] Market Analysis - The weight - reducing slaughter of large - scale pig farms has weakened the festival's boosting effect. In the short - term, the supply - demand imbalance persists, while long - term factors include the reduction of sow production capacity and policy changes [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [2] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 3116 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of + 3.00 yuan (+ 0.10%) from the previous trading day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 3.60 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 3.53 yuan/jin. - Inventory: On September 17, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 0.5 days, unchanged from the previous day, and the circulation - link inventory was 0.74 days, an increase of 0.14 days (23.33%) [3] Market Analysis - After the egg price increase, terminal consumption and trading are smooth, and inventory is being cleared. Overall demand is still strong due to the festivals, but the impact of cold - storage eggs entering the market should be noted [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]