方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Sugar: International sugar prices face downward pressure due to India's planned resumption of sugar exports in the 2025/26 season and other bearish factors, but the downside of raw sugar is limited. In the domestic market, there is limited room for a rebound after the release of negative factors, and a bearish outlook is maintained in the medium to long term [3]. - Pulp: As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to improve, and the demand for wood pulp replenishment may increase. Policy expectations and sentiment have improved, providing some support for pulp at a low valuation, but caution is still needed regarding the upside potential [4]. - Offset Paper: There are expectations of improved demand as the peak season approaches, which provides some support for the spot price. However, the upward driving force is not clear, and the price increase may be limited. Consideration can be given to inter - month reverse spreads and medium - term long - pulp short - paper arbitrage [6]. - Cotton: Both the international and domestic cotton markets are affected by factors such as the expected Fed rate cut and the balance between old - season supply tightening and new - season supply expectations. Short - term prices may fluctuate repeatedly [7]. - Apples: The main logic is the expected difference in the new season. As the new season harvest approaches, the output and high - quality fruit rate will be verified. Short - term prices are expected to remain within a range [8]. - Jujubes: The weather trading window is shortening, and the futures premium over the spot has converged. The inventory is being depleted faster, and the market is in a state of seeking direction. Aggressive investors can short at high levels, and cautious investors can consider reverse spreads [10]. Summary by Directory Part I: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures: For Apple 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 8500 - 8600. For Jujube 2601, short at high levels, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [18]. - Soft Commodity Futures: For Sugar 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 5480 - 5500 and a pressure range of 5580 - 5600. For Pulp 2511, take a bearish view within the range, with a support range of 4900 - 495 and a pressure range of 5150 - 5200. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rebounds, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500. For Cotton 2601, adopt a range - trading strategy, with a support range of 13500 - 13600 and a pressure range of 14300 - 14400 [18]. Part II: Market News Changes 1. Apple Market - Fundamental Information: In July, China's fresh apple exports were about 5.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 44.59% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.39%. As of September 10, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 20.91 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.44 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of apple production, with one showing a 2.03% decrease and the other a 2.35% increase [19]. - Spot Market: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area is stable. The early - maturing variety Red General has entered the market, with significant price differences. The transaction price in the northwest production area is high, and the price in the sales area is stable [20][21]. 2. Jujube Market The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week is 9321 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The market is in a state of seeking direction [22]. 3. Sugar Market India plans to start sugar exports in the new season starting in October 2025. The spot sugar price in Guangxi and Kunming has remained relatively stable, with some merchants slightly reducing their quotes [24]. 4. Pulp Market Some suppliers have reduced the price of non - NBSK softwood pulp by $10/ton, while most suppliers intend to keep the price of imported NBSK unchanged. South American hardwood pulp suppliers have raised prices, but Chinese buyers are reluctant to accept the increase [27]. 5. Offset Paper Market The mainstream transaction prices in different regions such as Shandong, Guangdong, Beijing, and Sichuan vary, with some prices decreasing and some remaining stable. The market is in a state of weak demand and more wait - and - see sentiment [28][29]. 6. Cotton Market In August 2025, Brazil exported 7.8 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 30.7%. The 2025/26 annual export volume is expected to reach 310 tons. The new - cotton picking progress in 2025 is 91%, and the processing progress is 31%. The cotton situation in different countries such as Pakistan, Vietnam, and India shows different import and export trends [30][31][32]. Part III: Market Review 1. Futures Market Review The closing prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Apple 2601, Jujube 2601, Sugar 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 are provided, showing different trends [33]. 2. Spot Market Review The spot prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and cotton are presented, with different price trends [40]. Part IV: Basis Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [51]. Part V: Inter - month Spread Situation The inter - month spreads of apples, jujubes, sugar, and cotton are in a state of range fluctuations, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [60]. Part VI: Futures Positioning Situation No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [66]. Part VII: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation The current warehouse receipt quantities, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of apples, jujubes, sugar, pulp, and cotton are given [85]. Part VIII: Option - related Data No specific text content is provided, only some related figure information is mentioned [85].