国投期货综合晨报-20250918

Group 1: Oil Market - International oil prices have declined, with Brent crude falling by 0.85%. US crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to increased exports, while concerns about demand arose from rising middle distillate inventories [2] - The medium-term outlook for oil prices remains bearish, with short-term geopolitical factors potentially affecting supply, but rebound potential is increasingly limited [2] Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced volatility, with the Federal Reserve's rate cut of 25 basis points interpreted as a risk management measure. The dot plot suggests three rate cuts this year and one next year, indicating a cautious Fed stance [3] - Precious metals may enter a phase of consolidation due to the Fed's moderate rate cut path [3] Group 3: Copper - Copper prices have declined, with the Fed's cautious stance on interest rates contributing to this trend. Prices are expected to test support levels around 79,000 to 79,500 [4] Group 4: Aluminum - Aluminum prices have retreated, with downstream operations showing seasonal recovery. However, aluminum inventories remain low without signs of a turning point, and macroeconomic factors are positive but limited in driving the industry [5][6] Group 5: Zinc - LME zinc inventories are below 49,000 tons, indicating tight supply. The domestic zinc market is under pressure from inventory accumulation, but a potential rebound is anticipated in the short term due to seasonal demand [8] Group 6: Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are fluctuating with a slight decrease in total market inventory. The market is cautiously optimistic, with short-term bullish sentiment expected as downstream demand stabilizes [12] Group 7: Steel Market - Steel prices are experiencing fluctuations, with rebar demand showing signs of recovery but overall inventory levels continuing to rise. The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic policies and seasonal demand [15][16] Group 8: Agricultural Products - The soybean market is influenced by US-China trade relations, with expectations of high import volumes. The corn market shows mixed signals, with prices varying by region and a cautious outlook ahead of the new harvest [37][41] Group 9: Livestock - The live pig market is under pressure with prices declining, while the egg market shows seasonal strength but faces long-term supply challenges. The overall livestock sector remains cautious [42][43]