9月FOMC：降息25bp，上调降息预测

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[2] - The dot plot indicates an additional 50 basis points of rate cuts expected within the year, raising the total anticipated cuts from 2 to 3[1][6] Economic Outlook - The Fed revised its 2025 Q4 GDP growth forecast upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%[5] - Core PCE inflation for 2025 remains at 3.1%, while the 2026 forecast was raised by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[5] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 remains at 4.5%, with slight reductions for 2026 and 2027 to 4.4% and 4.3% respectively[5] Employment and Inflation Insights - The Fed expressed increased concerns about the labor market, noting a shift from "labor market remains robust" to "employment growth has slowed" and acknowledging rising downside risks to employment[2][3] - Inflation risks are perceived to be lower than expected, with tariffs impacting goods prices and service inflation potentially continuing to cool[3] Forward Guidance - Powell emphasized that the recent rate cut is a "risk management cut," and future rate paths will depend on incoming data[4] - The dot plot suggests a total of 5 rate cuts from 2025 to 2027, with 3 cuts anticipated in 2025 alone[4][11] Market Reactions - Financial markets experienced volatility, with the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields initially dropping before rising again, settling at 3.54% and 4.06% respectively[2] - The S&P 500 index showed mixed movements, while gold prices fell by 0.8% to $3662 per ounce[2]