绿电公司可再生能源补贴情况梳理-20250918

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The renewable energy sector is experiencing rapid growth, but the issue of subsidy shortfalls has become prominent. Since the establishment of the Renewable Energy Development Fund in 2011, the funds collected have not kept pace with the increasing installed capacity of renewable energy, leading to a growing backlog of subsidies [2][12]. - As of the end of 2024, major companies like Three Gorges Energy and Huadian New Energy have receivables exceeding 40 billion yuan, indicating a significant backlog in subsidy payments. The ratio of receivables to market capitalization is notably high for companies such as Solar Energy, Jinkai New Energy, and Zhejiang New Energy, with ratios of 65%, 56%, and 51% respectively [3][15][16]. - Recent acceleration in subsidy recovery is expected to improve cash flow for operators. For instance, Solar Energy received 1.692 billion yuan in subsidies in August 2025, and the total for January to August 2025 reached 2.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 232.23% [4][17][18]. Summary by Sections Rapid Development of Wind and Solar Energy, Highlighting Subsidy Shortfalls - The renewable energy sector has entered a rapid development phase since 2016, but the subsidy collection has lagged behind the growth in installed capacity, resulting in a backlog of approximately 400 billion yuan in unpaid subsidies as of the end of 2021 [2][12][10]. High Receivables of Subsidies Amid Growing Shortfalls - The backlog of subsidies is particularly pronounced in the renewable energy sector, with 19 companies analyzed showing significant receivables. Three Gorges Energy and Huadian New Energy have receivables exceeding 40 billion yuan, while China Nuclear Power and Shanghai Electric have over 20 billion yuan [3][16][13]. Recent Acceleration in Subsidy Recovery, Potential Improvement in Operators' Cash Flow - The recovery of subsidies has accelerated, with several companies reporting that the amount recovered in the first eight months of 2025 has already surpassed the total for 2024. This trend is expected to alleviate the pressure on receivables and improve cash flow for operators [4][17][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on renewable energy operators such as Longyuan Power, Datang Renewable, and Jinko Solar, as well as traditional power companies transitioning to renewable energy like China Resources Power and Huaneng International. The acceleration in subsidy recovery is seen as a positive indicator for the long-term health of the renewable energy sector [4][19].