Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Oil prices rose for three consecutive days and then slightly declined. The market is assessing the impact of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. The weekly export volume of Russian crude oil has significantly decreased, and the crack spread of diesel in Europe and the United States has reached a new high since July. The volatile pattern of crude oil may continue [2]. - In the context of a reasonable valuation pattern for chemical products, they fluctuate following crude oil and coal. Currently, attention should be paid to whether low - valued chemical products will experience a significant rebound. For example, the processing fee of PTA is likely to be repaired, and the increase in futures may be slightly weaker than that in the spot market [3]. - The overall chemical product prices are boosted by macro - sentiment in the short term, but they remain volatile in general [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Views - Crude Oil: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks should be monitored. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased in the week of September 12, mainly due to a significant increase in net crude oil exports. The single - week import dropped to the lowest level in the same period in five years, and the export increased to the highest level in the same period in five years. The supply - demand pattern shows a weak reality, and the oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with risks concentrated on the geopolitical side [6]. - Asphalt: The option positions are concentrated at 3500, and the asphalt futures price fluctuates. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the monthly spread of asphalt is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [7]. - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The fuel oil futures price fluctuates weakly. The crack spread of fuel oil weakens due to the expected increase in production and the high export volume of Russian fuel oil. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to deteriorate, and it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [8]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It fluctuates following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline, and it is likely to maintain a low - valuation operation [9]. - Methanol: The inventory accumulation at ports slows down, and the methanol futures price fluctuates. The inland inventory pressure is limited, but the near - month port inventory pressure is still large, and there is a contradiction between the near - and far - month contracts [17]. - Urea: The actual transaction is limited, and it fluctuates and consolidates in the short term. The supply has increased significantly, but the demand support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile [19]. - Ethylene Glycol: The downstream demand fails to meet expectations, and the market sentiment is under pressure. The cost has certain support, but the supply - side pressure is expected to increase significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [13]. - PX: The new PTA production is postponed, the demand expectation weakens, and the processing fee is under pressure. The short - term price fluctuates following the cost, but the profit is expected to be under pressure due to the poor demand expectation [10]. - PTA: The new device production is postponed, and the maintenance is implemented, but the market boosting effect is limited. The supply - demand pattern has slightly improved, but the structure is difficult to change, and there is a possibility of a slight repair of PTA profit [10]. - Short - Fiber: It fluctuates following the cost, and the demand is average. The fundamental variables are limited, the upstream cost rises slightly, but the demand is still weak, and it is expected to fluctuate and sort out in the short term [14]. - Bottle Chip: The driving force is limited, and it follows passively. The price fluctuates and stabilizes, and the processing fee fluctuates within a range. It follows the upstream cost [15]. - PP: The maintenance slightly increases, and there is still restocking demand before the festival. The futures price fluctuates. The absolute price is at a low level, and there is some support from demand, but the supply side still has certain pressure [23]. - Propylene: It fluctuates following PP in the short term and is volatile in the short term [24]. - Plastic: There is still restocking demand before the festival, and it fluctuates. The previous low provides support, and there is some restocking demand from downstream manufacturers, but the supply side is under pressure [22]. - Pure Benzene: Affected by benzene - ethylene devices and macro - factors, pure benzene rises during the day. The prices of benzene - ethylene and pure benzene are in a neutral range, and the price compression drive is insufficient. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in crude oil prices and the subsequent import volume of pure benzene [11]. - Benzene - Ethylene: Affected by macro and device factors, benzene - ethylene rebounds. It rebounds after a decline, but it is still bearish in the medium term, and the inventory pressure is large. In the short term, it fluctuates, and there may be a small rebound [12]. - PVC: It operates in a volatile manner with a weak reality and strong expectation. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, and the cost slightly increases [26]. - Caustic Soda: The spot decline space is limited, and the market is volatile. The macro - sentiment is warm, but the fundamentals of caustic soda are under pressure, and the spot price is accelerating to decline. However, restocking before the National Day may provide certain support [27]. 2. Variety Data Monitoring - Energy Chemical Daily Index Monitoring: - Inter - period Spread: Data on the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [28]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Data on the basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, etc. are provided, showing the latest values, changes, and warehouse receipt quantities [29]. - Inter - variety Spread: Data on the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 1 - month TA - EG, etc. are provided, showing the latest values and changes [30]. - Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring: Specific monitoring content for various varieties such as methanol, urea, etc. is mentioned, but detailed data is not fully presented [31][44][56]. 3. Investment Rating Standard Explanation - The investment rating includes "strong", "volatile and strong", "volatile", "volatile and weak", "weak", and the time period is the next 2 - 12 weeks. One - time standard deviation is calculated as the 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation divided by the current price [271]. 4. Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities on September 17, 2025, is mentioned, including the special index and the sector index. The special index includes the commodity 20 index and the industrial product index, with corresponding values and changes. The sector index includes the energy index, with information on the latest value, historical price changes, and daily and recent price changes [272][273][275].
柴油裂解价差??原油延续震荡，TA的估值偏低有修复预期
Zhong Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-18 07:22