中国期货每日简报-20250918

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - On September 17, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed performances with energy and chemicals performing stronger [2][10][13] - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and there is a risk that the subsequent demand for poly - silicon will continue to weaken [17][24][33] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 17, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities showed mixed performances, with energy and chemicals performing stronger. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were LSFO, crude oil, and fuel oil, and the top three decliners were SCFIS(Europe), rapeseed meal, and poly - silicon. Among financial futures, IC and IM rose 1.3% and 1.2% respectively, and TL climbed 0.3% [10][11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Raise - Crude Oil: On September 17, it increased by 1.2% to 499.3 yuan/barrel. API data showed U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories declined last week, while diesel inventories continued to build up. The Russia - Ukraine conflict still supports oil prices. However, with OPEC+ accelerating production increases, crude oil inventories will face dual pressure later [17][18] 1.3 Daily Drop - Copper: On September 17, it decreased by 0.7% to 80560 yuan/ton. Supply constraints persist, and recent supply disruptions have increased. With the Fed's expected rate cut in September, copper prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Macroeconomically, loose liquidity is favorable for copper prices. Supply - side issues include disruptions in copper mine supply and increased costs of scrap copper recycling. Demand - side shows that the peak season for end - user demand has arrived, but copper inventory destocking is not obvious [24][25][26][27] - Poly - Silicon: On September 17, it decreased by 2.1% to 53490 yuan/ton. The anti - involution policy has boosted prices recently, but if policy expectations fade, prices may reverse. Supply - side: Southwest China's operating capacity has increased with the wet season. Demand - side: 1 - 5 months' high growth in photovoltaic installations has exhausted the second - half demand, and subsequent demand may continue to weaken [31][32][33] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - Trump extended the TikTok ban grace - period for the fourth time, pushing the deadline to December 16. From January to August, the national general public budget revenue reached 14.8198 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3% [36] 2.2 Industry News - Hong Kong will collaborate with GBA exchanges to develop new businesses such as commodity trading and carbon trading. It will also discuss launching offshore treasury bond futures, strengthen top - level design for commodities policies, and promote the development of its commodity trading ecosystem [37][38]