美元维持弱势，基本金属仍有望走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for different metals are as follows: copper - oscillating strongly; alumina - short - term oscillating weakly; aluminum - short - term oscillating, medium - term expected to move up; aluminum alloy - short - term oscillating, ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 expected to rise later; zinc - oscillating; lead - oscillating strongly; nickel - oscillating weakly; stainless steel - oscillating; tin - oscillating [8][10][15][18][19][20][23][25][26][27] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The US dollar remains weak, and base metals are still expected to strengthen. Weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, but weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the short to medium term, base metals are expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support metal prices [3] 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1行情观点 (Market Views) 3.1.1 Copper - View: The US dollar index oscillates at a low level, and copper prices operate at a high level. It is expected to be oscillating strongly [8] - Analysis: US non - farm employment in August was far lower than expected; a mine in Indonesia suspended operations; August copper production decreased slightly month - on - month; spot copper premiums declined; copper inventory increased; a policy led to production cuts in the recycled copper market; August US CPI rose [8][9] - Logic: The low - level US dollar index supports copper prices. Supply is disrupted by mine accidents and policy - induced production cuts. Demand is in the peak season, but inventory reduction is not obvious. If inventory drops, copper prices may strengthen [9] 3.1.2 Alumina - View: The weak fundamentals have not improved significantly, and alumina prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected to be oscillating [10] - Analysis: Alumina spot prices in different regions declined; an aluminum plant's bid price for alumina decreased; there was a strike warning in a Guinean aluminum - bauxite enterprise; a Guinean company had a strong复产 expectation; there was an overseas alumina transaction; alumina warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10][11][13] - Logic: Macro sentiment affects prices. Fundamentally, refinery profits have shrunk, production capacity is at a new high, supply is in excess, and imports may increase, so prices are under pressure [14] 3.1.3 Aluminum - View: Pay attention to the demand quality, and aluminum prices oscillate. Short - term consumption and inventory turning points need to be observed, and the medium - term center is expected to move up [15][16] - Analysis: Aluminum prices declined slightly; inventory continued to accumulate; a policy on new energy power was released; a company planned to replace and build an electrolytic aluminum project [15] - Logic: Short - term interest rate cut expectations are rising, and the US dollar is weak. Supply capacity is high, demand is expected to improve, but the inventory reduction turning point is not clear, so prices oscillate [15] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - View: As the first warehouse receipt registration approaches, the futures price oscillates. ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to rise later, and cross - variety arbitrage opportunities can be considered [18] - Analysis: Aluminum alloy prices declined; relevant policies on margin and export tax were introduced; a company extended its product line [16][17][18] - Logic: The cost of scrap aluminum supports prices. Supply and demand are both marginally improving, and inventory is accumulating. The AD - AL spread is expected to rise [18] 3.1.5 Zinc - View: Inventory continues to accumulate, and zinc prices oscillate. In the long - term, there is room for prices to fall [20] - Analysis: Spot zinc discounts remained stable; zinc inventory increased; the import zinc concentrate processing fee was determined [19] - Logic: The US labor market is weak, and the US dollar is under pressure. Zinc supply is loose, demand is average, and the market is in excess. With the expectation of Fed rate cuts, zinc prices oscillate in the short term [20] 3.1.6 Lead - View: Recycled lead supply decreases, and lead prices oscillate strongly [20] - Analysis: Scrap battery prices were stable; lead prices were stable; lead inventory increased due to delivery and is expected to fall after delivery; downstream consumption is in the transition period, and battery factory operating rates are high [20][21][22] - Logic: Spot premiums are stable, supply is reduced by policy - induced production cuts, and demand is stable. The supply - demand gap may continue, so prices are oscillating strongly [22][23] 3.1.7 Nickel - View: LME nickel inventory increased significantly, and nickel prices oscillate weakly [24] - Analysis: LME nickel inventory increased, and domestic inventory decreased slightly; high - nickel pig iron prices were stable; an Indonesian mine was not significantly affected by an incident; a company completed a nickel - mine acquisition [23][24] - Logic: Market sentiment dominates the market. The industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening, with increased inventory and weak price support, so prices oscillate weakly [25] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - View: Nickel - iron prices are stable, and stainless steel prices operate weakly. It is expected to oscillate [26] - Analysis: Stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased; spot premiums were stable; nickel - iron prices were stable; August stainless steel production increased; inventory decreased slightly [26] - Logic: Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices are stable. Production has recovered, and inventory pressure has eased. Attention should be paid to demand during the peak season [26] 3.1.9 Tin - View: Raw material supply is still tight, and tin prices oscillate at a high level [27] - Analysis: LME and SHFE tin warehouse receipts changed; spot tin prices declined; the复产 of a mine in Wa State was slow; Indonesian exports will gradually return to normal; African tin production is unstable; domestic tin concentrate processing fees are low, and production rates are falling; tin inventory has increased [27] - Logic: Supply is tight, which supports prices. However, terminal demand has weakened, and inventory has increased, so upward momentum is limited [27] 3.2行情监测 (Market Monitoring) - The report lists different metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, and tin, but no specific monitoring content is provided in the given text [30][44][56][69][82][95][109][124][136] 3.3商品指数 (Commodity Indexes) - On September 17, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2245.98 (- 0.33%), the commodity 20 index was 2515.59 (- 0.45%), and the industrial products index was 2270.66 (+ 0.04%). The non - ferrous metals index was 2396.21, with a daily decline of 0.39%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month increase of 1.19%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.81% [155][157]