美联储如期降息，??短线冲?回落

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp in September as expected, and gold initially rallied but then fell back. The market remains uncertain about the subsequent interest - rate cut path [1][3]. - The medium - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. If the interest - rate cut is confirmed to enter a continuous cycle or there are signs of interference with the Fed's independence, it will stimulate safe - haven buying. If the cut is seen as a preventive measure and the dollar rebounds in the short term, the gold price may be briefly pressured [3]. - Geopolitical risks continue to provide downside support for gold. Once the risk sentiment deteriorates, the price correction may be quickly absorbed by buyers [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Key Information - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and hinted at steadily reducing borrowing costs for the rest of the year to address concerns about the weakening job market. Most governors appointed by President Trump also supported this move [2]. - Russia's Transneft warned producers that they might have to cut production after Ukraine launched drone attacks on important Russian export ports and refineries [2]. - The UK and the US reached a technical agreement to strengthen cooperation in AI, quantum computing, and civil nuclear energy. Top US companies led by Microsoft promised to invest £31 billion ($42 billion) in the UK [2]. 2. Price Logic - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25% in September, the first cut since December last year. Only the new governor Miran advocated a 50bp cut, which may ease market concerns about the Fed's independence [3]. - The dot - plot shows a median expectation of a further 50bp rate cut this year. The Fed members' focus on interest - rate forecasts has shifted downward overall, while Miran expects a significant rate cut in 2025 [3]. - The GDP forecasts for 2025 - 2026 were raised, the unemployment rate forecast was lowered, and the core PCE was raised to 2.6%, indicating stronger inflation stickiness. However, the FOMC still chose to cut rates, reflecting a more dovish policy reaction function [3]. - Gold has been volatile around the Fed's interest - rate cut, then rallied and fell back. It has risen by more than 9% since Jackson Hole in August, facing short - term profit - taking pressure. Historically, the gold price mostly shows small increases or remains flat in the week after a Fed rate cut, and the average returns after one month and three months are significantly positive [3]. 3. Market Performance - The US Treasury bond yield first fell and then rose. The 10 - year yield briefly fell below 4% and then returned to the upper end of the range, still below the key moving average. The US dollar index hit its lowest level since 2022, indicating that the market is betting on a decline in real interest rates [4]. - US stocks first fell and then recovered some losses. Risk assets are still in the "soft landing + loose liquidity" sweet spot [4]. 4. Geopolitical Situation - The Russia - Ukraine conflict has escalated again, with the Ukrainian army attacking large refineries in Russia at night and the Russian army seizing villages in the Dnipropetrovsk region. In the Middle East, Israel has advanced its ground offensive deeper into Gaza City, increasing the intensity of the conflict [7]. 5. Outlook - The weekly range for spot London gold is expected to be between $3,500 and $3,800, and for spot London silver, it is expected to be between $39 and $45 [7]. 6. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index is not detailed. Among the special indices, the commodity index is 2245.98, down 0.33%; the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; and the industrial products index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [44]. - For the precious metals index on September 17, 2025, the daily change was - 1.19%, the change in the past 5 days was + 0.70%, the change in the past month was + 8.54%, and the change since the beginning of the year was + 31.72% [46].