First Shanghai Securities·2025-09-18 07:27Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 4.73, representing a potential upside of 37% from the current price of HKD 3.46 [5][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to enhance its earnings stability through the integration of hydropower assets, which will significantly boost profits. The restructuring will position the company as a comprehensive clean energy flagship platform while focusing on green energy transformation [3][7]. - Despite short-term fluctuations in hydropower water levels and market electricity prices, the diversified generation portfolio is anticipated to lead to improved earnings certainty in the future [7]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company reported revenue of HKD 44.26 billion, with a projected increase to HKD 54.21 billion in 2024, followed by a slight decline to HKD 50.56 billion in 2025 [4][8]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is expected to grow from HKD 2.66 billion in 2023 to HKD 3.36 billion in 2024, reaching HKD 3.85 billion in 2025 [4][8]. - The company’s EBITDA margin is projected to improve from 45.1% in 2024 to 55.6% by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [8]. Operational Performance - The company’s total installed capacity reached 53.9 GW as of the first half of 2025, marking an 11.6% year-on-year increase, with clean energy accounting for 81.8% of the total capacity [7]. - The average fuel cost decreased by 14.4% year-on-year, contributing to positive profit growth despite a decline in coal and hydropower sales volumes [7]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the high valuation and liquidity of the market, particularly through the integration of its core hydropower assets into a dedicated platform [7]. - The company’s dividend payout ratio has remained stable at around 60%, with expectations for further increases in earnings and dividends following the completion of asset integration [7].