降重限产政策持续，生猪继续承压

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Volatile. The market sentiment has weakened again, and oils and fats may continue to adjust in the near term. However, due to factors such as the expected increase in overseas production demand, the possibility of a further downward adjustment of US soybean yield, and the strong expectation of a Fed rate cut, there is a high probability that the price of oils and fats will rise again in the medium term [5]. - Protein Meals: Volatile. The Fed is about to cut interest rates, and attention should be paid to whether it exceeds expectations. The US soybean yield still has room for downward adjustment, and the progress of sowing in South America is uncertain. With both long and short positions coexisting, US soybeans will move in a volatile manner. Affected by spot inventory accumulation and weak sentiment, the protein meal futures price is testing the support at the lower edge of the range, and the basis fluctuates with the spot. It is recommended to hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips. Oil mills are advised to sell hedges on rallies, and downstream enterprises are advised to buy basis contracts or fix prices on dips [5]. - Corn/Starch: Volatile and weak in the short term, with a long - term outlook of short - term bearish and long - term bullish. In the short term, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage opportunities, with the core logic being to trade the pressure of new grain listing and the valuation correction after the selling pressure is largely released [7]. - Hogs: Volatile. As the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day holidays approach, festival demand may gradually start, but the hog supply in September is abundant, and the weight inventory is higher than the same period last year. Both supply and demand of hogs are increasing, and the spot price is expected to move in a volatile manner. From a futures perspective, hogs are still in the period of high - capacity realization in the fourth quarter. After the National Day, hog prices are expected to continue to face supply pressure, while the prices of far - month contracts are supported by the expectation of capacity reduction. There is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage opportunities [8]. - Natural Rubber: Volatile and bullish in the short term. The macro sentiment is acceptable, and the fundamentals also have short - term support. The short - term trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile and bullish [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: Volatile. In the short term, there will be no major changes in the fundamentals and raw materials, and the futures price will move in a range - bound manner [13]. - Cotton: Volatile in the short term, with a reference range of 13800 - 14300 yuan/ton. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate. Low inventory provides strong support for cotton prices at the bottom, but there is a lack of momentum for a rebound. Pay attention to the actual purchase price dynamics. When a large amount of new cotton is listed, the reality of increased production in the new year will gradually put downward pressure on cotton prices [13]. - Sugar: Volatile and weak in the long term, with a short - term reference range of 5500 - 5750 yuan/ton for single - side trading. In the long term, due to the expected supply surplus in the new crushing season, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to be volatile and weak. In the short term, sugar prices stop falling and rebound [14]. - Pulp: Volatile. The internal contradictions of pulp are divided, with important long and short factors coexisting. The futures price of pulp is expected to move in a volatile manner, with an expected fluctuation range of 4950 - 5300 [15]. - Offset Paper: Volatile. It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - Logs: Volatile and bullish in the short term. It is expected that the market will continue to destock in September, and with the expectation of improved terminal demand on a month - on - month basis, log prices may stop falling and stabilize [18]. 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including supply, demand, inventory, and price trends. For most products, there are short - term and long - term differences in market trends. For example, in the hog market, there is a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation", with short - term supply pressure and long - term hope for price improvement due to capacity reduction. In the corn market, there is a short - term bearish and long - term bullish situation [8][7]. - The market sentiment and macro - economic factors, such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, the US soybean production situation, and the international trade environment, have a significant impact on the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the expected Fed rate cut affects the prices of oils and fats, protein meals, etc. The change in US soybean production and export also affects the relevant product markets [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - Oils and Fats: Market sentiment has weakened, and oils and fats may continue to adjust. From a macro perspective, the market has a strong expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, and the US dollar has weakened. Crude oil prices have risen due to concerns about Russian oil supply disruptions. From an industrial perspective, the drought - affected area of US soybeans has continued to expand, and the soybean yield may be further adjusted downward. The import volume of domestic soybeans is expected to decline seasonally, and the domestic soybean oil inventory may gradually peak. The flood in the Sabah region of Malaysia may affect palm oil production, and the palm oil inventory in September is likely to continue to increase. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory is slowly declining, but it is still higher than the same period last year. The relationship between China and Canada remains uncertain [5]. - Protein Meals: The cost support has shifted downward, and the prices of double - meal futures continue to decline. Internationally, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates this week. The US soybean area has been increased, and the yield has been slightly adjusted downward. The soybean sowing progress in Brazil is slow, and the South American premium has weakened. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills continues to accumulate, and the physical inventory of feed enterprises' soybean meal has increased slightly. The spot and basis are running at a low level. In the long term, there is no supply gap before December. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, and rapeseed meal is expected to follow soybean meal and move in a volatile manner [5]. - Corn/Starch: Recent continuous rainfall has occurred, and attention should be paid to the grain quality. The domestic corn price is generally weak. The supply of old - crop corn is decreasing, and the inventory in each link is declining. In the Northeast, the supply of old - crop corn is tight, and new - crop corn has not been listed in large quantities. In North China, continuous rainfall has led to problems such as moldy and bald ears in some areas, and the price has continued to decline. In the short term, the market will face the pressure of new - crop corn listing. In the long term, the price is not pessimistic in the context of a tighter carry - over inventory [7]. - Hogs: The policy of weight reduction and production limitation continues, and the near - month contracts are under pressure. On September 16, the Ministry of Agriculture continued to guide breeding enterprises to reduce production capacity. From September 18 - 19, 15,000 tons of hog reserves will be rotated. In the short term, the planned hog slaughter volume in September has increased by 4% compared with that in August. In the medium term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, and the hog slaughter volume is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, if the policy of capacity reduction is effectively implemented in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure in 2026 will be gradually reduced. The ratio of meat to hog price has slightly increased, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs is stable. The utilization rate of secondary - fattening pens has continued to decline. In the short term, the hog price is under pressure, and in the long term, the hog price may gradually strengthen [8]. - Natural Rubber: It has adjusted downward following the overall commodity market. The short - term reality shows strong spot, inventory reduction, and a continuously narrowing basis. However, it is difficult to break through the previous high without further positive driving factors. The supply situation in the producing areas is improving, and attention should be paid to the supply volume and inventory reduction rate. The downstream procurement intention needs to be observed [11]. - Synthetic Rubber: It has returned to a weak trend, mainly dragged down by the overall commodity market. The absolute price and operating logic of the futures have changed little recently, and it mainly follows the movement of natural rubber. In the medium - term, due to the expected high - frequency equipment maintenance from September to November and the low price, the bearish sentiment has cooled down, and the bottom support is strong, but there is no continuous upward driving force [13]. - Cotton: The cotton price continues to fluctuate slightly. New cotton in Xinjiang has begun to be purchased in small quantities, and the market is waiting for the purchase price to provide guidance. The cotton inventory is low, and the downstream demand has improved marginally, but the demand - side positive factors are not strong. The USDA September report has not adjusted the US cotton production and has raised the Chinese cotton production, but it is still underestimated [13]. - Sugar: The sugar price continues to fluctuate. In the long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 crushing season, and the sugar price has a downward driving force. In the short term, the production and export of Brazilian sugar are in the peak season, and the domestic import volume has increased. The fundamentals are relatively loose, but the short - term downward space is limited, and there is a certain support for a rebound [14]. - Pulp: There is no obvious breakthrough - type driving force, and the pulp maintains a volatile trend. The futures price of pulp has been moving horizontally, and the spot trading of softwood pulp is weak, while that of hardwood pulp is slightly better. The price increase of the US dollar - denominated pulp has weakened, and the new supply from Chenming's resumption of production has increased. The demand has entered the seasonal peak season, but the upward transmission of terminal demand is weak. The pulp futures valuation is at a low level, but the problem of needle - pulp warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [15]. - Offset Paper: It is difficult for the upward driving force to emerge, and offset paper moves in a narrow - range volatile manner. The trading volume of offset paper at the initial stage of listing is limited, and there is no substantial driving force. In the short term, the fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the tendering of publishers has not started. The market lacks a clear upward or downward driving force. In the long - term, the fundamentals of offset paper are weak, and the market has a strong bearish expectation. It is recommended to consider trading in the range of 4000 - 4500 [16]. - Logs: The processing demand has warmed up, and the spot price has boosted the futures price to move in a volatile and bullish manner. The downstream sales of logs have improved, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is in a stage of game between weak reality and peak - season expectation. The arrival pressure in September has improved, but the import volume is expected to increase seasonally in October. The demand for logs in China is expected to increase from September to October, and the spot price is in a bottom - building trend [18]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties, including prices, price changes, and inventory information of oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: The comprehensive index of commodities on September 17, 2025, shows that the commodity 20 index is 2515.59, down 0.45%; the industrial product index is 2270.66, up 0.04% [178]. - Agricultural Product Index: On September 17, 2025, the agricultural product index is 961.10, with a daily decline of 0.69%, a decline of 0.99% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.21% in the past month, and an increase of 0.67% since the beginning of the year [180].