美联储如期降息25bp，资金面持续收敛，债市有所回暖

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On September 17, the capital market showed a situation where the capital supply tightened, the bond market recovered, the convertible bond market continued to decline, and most convertible bond individual stocks fell; yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose, and yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - From January to August, the national general public budget revenue was 1,481.98 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, with cumulative growth rate 0.2 percentage points higher than last month; national tax revenue slightly increased by 0.02% year - on - year, with cumulative growth rate turning positive for the first time this year; national general public budget expenditure increased by 3.1% year - on - year, with cumulative growth rate 0.3 percentage points lower than last month; enterprise income tax revenue increased by 0.3% year - on - year, individual income tax revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year, vehicle purchase tax revenue decreased by 17.7% year - on - year, stamp duty revenue increased by 27.4% year - on - year, and securities trading stamp duty revenue increased by 81.7% year - on - year [3]. - As of 16:30 on September 17, the on - shore RMB to US dollar exchange rate was reported at 7.1056. Since September, the on - shore RMB to US dollar exchange rate has risen by 0.46%. The appreciation is due to the expected Fed rate - cut cycle and weakening dollar, as well as China's stable economic performance and increased attractiveness of RMB assets [4]. - As of the end of July, the balance of service consumption loans in key areas was 279 billion yuan, with new loans in the first seven months 6.3 billion yuan more than the whole of last year [4]. - Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, the total assets of central enterprises have increased from less than 70 trillion yuan to over 90 trillion yuan, and the total profit has increased from 1.9 trillion yuan to 2.6 trillion yuan, with average annual growth rates of 7.3% and 8.3% respectively. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, 6 groups of 10 enterprises were restructured, and 9 new central enterprises were established [6]. 3.1.2 International News - On September 17 (U.S. Eastern Time), the Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25bp to 4.00% - 4.25%. The Fed expects to cut rates three times this year (one more than last time) and once next year. It also adjusted GDP growth, unemployment, and inflation expectations [7]. 3.1.3 Commodities - On September 17, WTI crude oil fell 0.75% to $63.99 per barrel, Brent crude oil fell 0.97% to $68.11 per barrel, COMEX gold futures fell 0.84% to $3,693.90 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices fell 1.28% to $3.077 per ounce [8]. 3.2 Capital Supply 3.2.1 Open Market Operations - On September 17, the central bank conducted 418.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 304 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 114.5 billion yuan [9]. 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates - Affected by the tax period on September 17, the capital supply tightened, and major repurchase rates continued to rise. DR001 rose 4.43bp to 1.487%, and DR007 rose 4.26bp to 1.540% [10]. 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Bearing Bonds - Spot Bond Yield Trends: On September 17, the bond market was weak in the morning and recovered in the afternoon. By 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250011 fell 1.70bp to 1.7630%, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB active bond 250215 fell 1.75bp to 1.9025% [13]. - Bond Tendering Situations: Information on the tendering of multiple bonds such as 25贴现国债57, 25贴现国债58, etc., including maturity, issuance scale, winning yield, over - subscription ratio, and marginal ratio, was provided [15]. 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies: On September 17, the transaction prices of 3 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1碧地03" fell more than 21%, "H9龙控01" rose more than 15%, and "H1碧地04" rose more than 66% [15]. - Credit Bond Events: Wuhan Tianying Investment's subsidiary failed to pay the principal and interest of "20天乾01" on schedule, with a bond balance of 450 million yuan; Oceanwide Capital planned to use a total of 11.9139 million yuan for bond repurchases [16]. 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - Equity and Convertible Bond Indexes: On September 17, the three major A - share indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising 0.37%, 1.16%, and 1.95% respectively, and the total trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan. The convertible bond market also rose, with the CSI Convertible Bond, Shanghai Convertible Bond, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond indexes rising 0.57%, 0.55%, and 0.57% respectively. The trading volume was 89.036 billion yuan, an increase of 1.853 billion yuan from the previous trading day. Among individual convertible bonds, 325 rose, 97 fell, and 15 remained flat [17]. - Convertible Bond Tracking: Sichuan Bluetown Development and its subsidiaries had 25 new items included in the list of dishonest executors; Shimao Co., Ltd. had new litigation and arbitration involving a total amount of 1.656 billion yuan as of August 31; Hong Yang Real Estate postponed the Hong Kong winding - up petition hearing to March 23 next year; Shimao Construction had new overdue bond principal and interest of about 690 million yuan and new overdue interest - bearing debts of more than 10 million yuan totaling about 200 million yuan; Yingliu Convertible Bond will start online subscription on September 19; Ruikeda's convertible bond issuance was approved by the exchange on September 17 [20][21]. 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - U.S. Bond Market: On September 17, yields of U.S. Treasuries across maturities generally rose. The yield of the 2 - year U.S. Treasury rose 1bp to 3.52%, and the yield of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury rose 2bp to 4.06%. The 2/10 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread widened by 1bp to 54bp, and the 5/30 - year U.S. Treasury yield spread narrowed by 2bp to 104bp. The break - even inflation rate of the 10 - year U.S. Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) rose 1bp to 2.38% [22][23][24]. - European Bond Market: On September 17, yields of 10 - year government bonds in major European economies showed divergent trends. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond fell 2bp to 2.68%, yields of 10 - year French and British government bonds remained unchanged, the yield of the 10 - year Italian government bond fell 1bp, and the yield of the 10 - year Spanish government bond rose 2bp [25]. - Daily Price Changes of Chinese - Issued U.S. Dollar Bonds: Information on the daily price changes of multiple Chinese - issued U.S. dollar bonds as of the close on September 17, including daily changes, credit entities, bond codes, issuance amounts, maturity dates, yields, and monthly changes, was provided [28].