光大期货能化商品日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "volatile", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride [1][2][4][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. The prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost - side oil price fluctuations, and seasonal demand changes [1][2][4][5][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Wednesday, oil prices fell slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year. U.S. crude and gasoline inventories decreased last week, while distillate inventories increased. Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [1] - Fuel Oil: The main fuel oil contracts rose on Wednesday. Although the autumn refinery maintenance season may tighten supply, the market will remain relatively well - supplied before October. High - sulfur fuel oil has support from downstream demand, and both FU and LU are expected to fluctuate, with attention to crude oil price fluctuations [2] - Asphalt: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. Supply may decline slightly in September, and demand is supported by the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" season. The price may rise further, with attention to oil price and demand [2] - Polyester: TA601 and EG2601 rose on Wednesday. PX supply is recovering, and downstream TA maintenance is ending. The price is expected to fluctuate, with support from increased polyester start - up and potential improvement in TA fundamentals [4] - Rubber: Rubber prices fell on Wednesday. Although production is increasing, there are weather disturbances in some areas, and downstream tire start - up has rebounded. Social inventories are decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate [5] - Methanol: Methanol prices are affected by domestic and overseas supply. Domestic supply is at a low level due to maintenance, and overseas supply is relatively stable. The price is expected to enter a phase - bottom [5] - Polyolefin: Polyolefin prices are expected to fluctuate slightly upward. Supply will remain high, and demand is improving with the arrival of the peak season [7] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): PVC prices are expected to rebound slightly. Supply is high, domestic demand recovers slowly, and exports are affected by anti - dumping policies. However, the market is re - trading "anti - involution", and previous short positions are taking profits [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes of spot and futures, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data for various energy and chemical products on September 18, 2025 [9] 3.3 Market News - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.3 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels in the week ending September 12, due to record - low net imports and a jump in exports. Gasoline inventories decreased unexpectedly, and distillate inventories increased more than expected [11] - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%, and most policymakers expect three rate cuts this year [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., from 2021 to 2025 [13][14][15] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: It shows the basis and basis rate trends of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][32][33] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report displays the spreads between different contracts of fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc., which helps to analyze the price differences between different delivery months [43][45][48] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: It presents the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, and the ratio between fuel oil and asphalt, providing insights into the relative price relationships between different products [58][63][64] - 4.5 Production Profits: The report shows the production profits of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE, which are important factors affecting the supply of these products [67][68][70] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - 钟美燕: The assistant director and energy - chemical director of the research institute, with over a decade of research experience in the futures derivatives market [72] - 杜冰沁: An analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth industry research and media exposure [73] - 邸艺琳: A rubber and polyester analyst, with awards and media contributions [74] - 彭海波: A methanol/PE/PP/PVC analyst, with relevant academic background and industry experience [75]