光大期货金融期货日报-20250918

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment rating for stock index futures is "Bullish" [1] - The investment rating for treasury bond futures is "Sideways" [1] Group 2: Core Views - The market opened lower and closed higher. The ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon, hitting a new high in over three years. The market volume was 2.4 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.16%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.95% [1][4] - The economic data in August showed a slight decline in demand - side indicators such as consumption and investment, indicating that the economy is still on the path to bottom - out. This market rally is mainly driven by medium - to long - term policy expectations, with limited impact from current fundamental factors [1] - In the long run, the Fed is likely to start a rate - cut cycle in September, and the market expects three rate cuts this year. The rate - cut channel for A - shares may open simultaneously, which is favorable for medium - to long - term stock index futures [1] - The implementation of the parenting subsidy system is expected to directly boost residents' income. In the future, the central bank may purchase government bonds to fund the central government, and more inclusive fiscal support measures will be an important way to stabilize and boost inflation [1] - The liquidity - driven market is expected to continue with obvious structural features, and sector rotation may accelerate [1] - Treasury bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 4185 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 1145 billion yuan. Recently, the bond market has been affected by large - scale redemptions of bond funds. In the short term, with mixed fundamentals, there is no clear turning - point signal, so it is expected to remain in a wide sideways range [1][2] Group 3: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 17 | 2025 - 09 - 16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH | 2,956.2 | 2,950.6 | 5.6 | 0.19% | | IF | 4,553.2 | 4,516.8 | 36.4 | 0.81% | | IC | 7,252.4 | 7,165.2 | 87.2 | 1.22% | | IM | 7,547.0 | 7,462.0 | 85.0 | 1.14% | [3] Stock Indexes | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 17 | 2025 - 09 - 16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2,952.8 | 2,947.8 | 5.0 | 0.17% | | CSI 300 | 4,551.0 | 4,523.3 | 27.7 | 0.61% | | CSI 500 | 7,260.0 | 7,191.0 | 69.0 | 0.96% | | CSI 1000 | 7,554.8 | 7,483.6 | 71.2 | 0.95% | [3] Treasury Bond Futures | Variety | 2025 - 09 - 17 | 2025 - 09 - 16 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS | 102.46 | 102.41 | 0.042 | 0.04% | | TF | 105.89 | 105.80 | 0.095 | 0.09% | | T | 108.16 | 108.00 | 0.155 | 0.14% | | TL | 115.88 | 115.48 | 0.40 | 0.35% | [3] Group 4: Market News - The overall market opened lower and closed higher. The ChiNext Index rose more than 2% in the afternoon, hitting a new high in over three years. About 2800 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets declined, and the trading volume was 2.4 trillion yuan [4] - Sectors such as diversified finance, foldable screens, robotics, and wind power equipment led the gains, while sectors such as gold, retail, unified market, and fertilizers led the losses [4] - Robotics concept stocks continued to strengthen, with many stocks hitting the daily limit. Semiconductor and lithography concept stocks also rose, and the stock price of SMIC hit a new high. The intelligent driving concept remained active, while retail stocks adjusted downward [4] Group 5: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report provides the historical price trends of the main contracts of IH, IF, IM, and IC, as well as the historical basis trends of these contracts [6][7][9] Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the price trends of the main contracts of treasury bond futures, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds, the basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [12][15][17] Exchange Rates - The report presents the historical trends of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, forward exchange rates, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between major currencies [20][24][28]