美联储有望开启新一轮宽松周期：——2025年9月FOMC会议点评

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts by 25 basis points, maintaining the federal funds rate target range at 4.00% to 4.25%[2] - The Fed's guidance indicates a potential for three more rate cuts within the year, adjusting the median rate forecast down from 3.9% to 3.6%[14] - The meeting's tone was dovish, reflecting concerns over employment risks and a shift in the balance of risks[3][8] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 0.3%[4] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 2 basis points to 4.06%, and the 2-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 3.52%[4] - The market's expectation for a 50 basis point cut was not fully met, leading to a mixed reaction in equities and a rebound in bond yields[3][7] Group 3: Economic Indicators - Non-farm payroll data was significantly revised downwards, with a reduction of 91,100 jobs over the past 12 months, intensifying rate cut expectations[5][6] - The Fed's economic outlook was upgraded, suggesting that rate cuts could stimulate durable goods consumption and real estate investment[8][14] - Inflation pressures are expected to remain manageable, with the Fed indicating that the current economic conditions do not warrant aggressive rate hikes[21][26]