海外观察：2025年9月美国FOMC会议：降息落地，后续还有多少空间？

Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% as expected[2] - The median dot plot indicates a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year[2] - The analysis suggests that the Fed may have approximately 70 basis points of additional rate cut space based on the Taylor rule[3] Group 2: Economic Forecasts - The Fed raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 1.6%[2] - The PCE inflation forecast for 2025 remains at 3.0%, while the 2026 forecast was increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.6%[2] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2025 is maintained at 4.5%, with slight reductions for 2026 and 2027[2] Group 3: Employment and Inflation Concerns - The FOMC statement reflects concerns about the labor market, noting a slowdown in job gains and an increase in the unemployment rate[2] - The report highlights upward pressure on inflation due to rising retail prices and inventory levels[3][8] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, asset prices exhibited volatility, with the 2-year Treasury yield rising by 5 basis points to 3.55%[3] - The market's initial expectations of a 50 basis point cut were tempered by Powell's comments, leading to a reversal in asset price movements[3]