南华金属日报：鹰派降息，贵金属高位调整-20250918

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The report indicates that precious metal prices are undergoing high - level adjustments after a hawkish interest rate cut. In the medium - to long - term, the trend may be bullish, but in the short - term, London gold and silver face significant adjustment pressure. The report maintains a strategy of buying on dips and advises cautious holding of existing long positions [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Quotes - Wednesday saw significant intraday fluctuations in precious metal prices. London gold and silver closed with negative daily candlesticks, indicating short - term adjustment pressure. After the Fed's interest rate decision, although the market initially pushed up London gold prices, they quickly fell due to Powell's hawkish remarks. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3694.6 per ounce, down 0.82%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $41.995 per ounce, down 2.15%. SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 837.64 yuan per gram, down 0.37%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 9933 yuan per kilogram, down 1.76% [2]. - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE, SGX, and CME gold and silver contracts, as well as the SHFE - TD gold and silver spreads and the CME gold - silver ratio [7]. 2. Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 12.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 87.7%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 19%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 79.9%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 10.1%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 49.6%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 39.8% [3]. - Long - term funds: SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 4.29 tons to 975.66 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 28.23 tons to 15189.61 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 9.9 tons to 1221.4 tons, while SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1252.4 tons in the week ending September 12 [3]. 3. This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. On Thursday at 19:00, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision and meeting minutes. On Friday, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. US President Trump will conduct a state visit to the UK [4]. 4. Inventory and Position Table - The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver holdings [16]. 5. Other Market Data - The table presents the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change percentages of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [22].