Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The long - term logic has been weakened due to the expected resumption of projects. However, from the current fundamental perspective, inventory depletion is accelerating. Before the actual resumption of projects, with strong demand and pre - holiday stockpiling for the National Day, downstream procurement demand will support prices. The price of lithium carbonate may fluctuate in the short term, and the actual situation of projects in Jiangxi needs further attention [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Viewpoint - Price Changes: On September 17, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.03% to 73,640 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 300 yuan/ton to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also rose by 300 yuan/ton to 70,900 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 74,000 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 410 tons to 39,234 tons [3]. - Supply and Demand: Weekly production increased by 544 tons to 19,963 tons. Among them, lithium extraction from spodumene increased by 300 tons to 12,709 tons, from lepidolite by 130 tons to 2,730 tons, from salt lakes by 62 tons to 2,655 tons, and from recycling by 52 tons to 1,869 tons. Weekly production of ternary materials decreased by 22 tons to 16,491 tons, and the inventory decreased by 115 tons to 17,529 tons. Weekly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 980 tons to 77,513 tons, and the inventory increased by 686 tons to 95,442 tons [3]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory decreased by 1,580 tons to 138,512 tons. Downstream inventory increased by 3,072 tons to 58,279 tons, intermediate - link inventory decreased by 1,390 tons to 44,020 tons, and upstream inventory decreased by 3,262 tons to 36,213 tons [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures and Spot Prices: The closing price of the main contract of lithium carbonate futures was 73,640 yuan/ton, up 460 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of the continuous contract was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 857 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars. The prices of some lithium ores and lithium salts also had corresponding changes [5]. - Price Spreads: The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,250 yuan/ton. The price spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 350 yuan to 850 yuan [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore Prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lepidolite, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [7][8][9]. - Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices: The price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are presented from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15]. - Price Spreads: The price spreads between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and other relevant spreads are shown from 2024 to 2025 [18][19]. - Precursor and Cathode Materials: The price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese - acid lithium, and cobalt - acid lithium are presented from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][31]. - Lithium Battery Prices: The price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt - acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries are shown from 2024 to 2025 [34][36]. - Inventory: The inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from January to September 2025 are presented [39][41]. - Production Costs: The production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as ternary pole piece black powder, lithium iron phosphate pole piece black powder, lithium mica concentrate, and spodumene concentrate are shown from 2024 to 2025 [44]. 3.4 Research Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of the non - ferrous research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon [48]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel [48]. 3.5 Contact Information - Company address: 6th Floor, Building 1, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone - Company phone: 021 - 80212222 - Fax: 021 - 80212200 - Customer service hotline: 400 - 700 - 7979 - Zip code: 200127 [51][52]
碳酸锂日报（2025 年 9 月 18 日）-20250918
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-09-18 08:14