光大期货农产品日报-20250918

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn: The 11 - month corn contract is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. New corn listing in the production area is expected to increase after mid - September, bringing pressure. Technically, it has been in a downward trend since early September, and short - term attention should be paid to whether the January contract can break through the price low in mid - August. Short - term rebounds after sharp price drops should be watched out for, and a bearish approach is recommended for medium - term operations [1]. - Soybean Meal: The market is expected to oscillate. CBOT soybeans fell due to disappointment with the US biofuel proposal, and the Fed's overnight interest rate cut put pressure on commodities. In the domestic market, the long - short contradiction has intensified. The potential supply gap in the domestic long - term has further narrowed, and short - term participation is recommended [1]. - Edible Oils: The market is expected to oscillate. BMD palm oil rose but was restricted by the strong Malaysian ringgit. Domestic edible oil prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The tight rapeseed spot and Malaysian weather still support the market, and a strategy of going long on volatility is recommended [1]. - Eggs: The market is expected to oscillate. The egg futures showed an oscillatory pattern, and the spot price continued to rebound with a narrowing increase. The decline in chick replenishment from May to August may lead to a decrease in new egg - laying capacity from September to December. It is recommended to wait and see and participate with a light position [1][2]. - Pigs: The market is expected to be weakly oscillatory. The pig futures showed an oscillatory downward trend, and the spot price continued to decline. The supply exceeds demand, and the pig price is under pressure. Although the content of the pig production capacity regulation symposium met market expectations, its boost to the market was limited. The pig price may remain weak in the short term, but may be supported by increased demand in the later period [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Palm Oil: According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from September 1 - 15, 2025 were 404,688 tons, a 24.7% decrease compared to the same period last month. According to AmSpec, the exports were 695,716 tons, a 0.1% decrease. From September 1 - 15, the palm oil yield per unit in Malaysia decreased by 6.94% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.21%, and the production decreased by 8.05% [3]. - Pigs: A pig production capacity regulation enterprise symposium was held in Beijing on September 16. Relevant departments plan to reduce the national breeding sow inventory by about 1 million to about 39.5 million. After completing the weight - reduction task, enterprises should keep the pig slaughter weight at about 120 kg, and the overall slaughter of leading enterprises in 2026 is expected to decrease by 10% year - on - year [3]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [5][6][14][10]. - Contract Basis: The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pigs [13][16][17][23].