9月FOMC点评：焦点在降息本身之外

Group 1: FOMC Statement and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) - The Fed held its September FOMC meeting and cut the federal funds rate by 25bp as expected, lowering the target range to 4.0 - 4.25%. The statement emphasized rising downside risks in the job market [1]. - The dot - plot shows that most officials think there should be another 50bp cut in 2025, an increase from the June dot - plot. Among 19 officials, views on further rate adjustments vary [2]. - The Fed kept its employment and inflation expectations for the year largely unchanged compared to June but slightly raised the GDP forecast and believes in more significant rate cuts, possibly due to "political pressure." Tariffs' impact on inflation is slow and limited, and the labor market shows "low firing, low hiring" characteristics [3]. - In terms of economic indicators, GDP growth expectations for 2025, 2026, and 2027 were slightly raised; unemployment rate expectations changed little; core PCE inflation expectations for 2026 were adjusted up; and interest rate expectations were significantly lowered [3][4]. Group 2: Powell's Press Conference - Powell affirmed the Fed's commitment to independence and provided three ways for the public to judge that Fed decisions are based on economic prospects: policy communication logic, officials' speech content, and actual decision - making matching economic conditions [5]. - He said that the impact of tariffs on inflation has emerged and is expected to accumulate. The main reason for changes in the labor market is the significant decline in labor supply due to reduced immigration [5]. - Regarding noisy employment data, Powell said the downward revision was in line with expectations, and the data would become more reliable over time, sufficient for policy - making. The Fed also called for more resources for data collection [6][7]. Group 3: Market Performance - Most assets had priced in the rate cut, and after the meeting, some funds took profits. At the close, 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasury yields rose, international precious metal futures fell, the US dollar index rose, and US stocks had mixed results. The OIS market priced in about 44.9bp of further rate cuts in 2025 [10]. Group 4: Follow - up Policy - The Fed's policy focus has shifted to the job market. It is expected that the probability of two rate cuts this year is higher than one, and the rate cut amplitude in 2026 is still uncertain [11]. - Milan's voting behavior may challenge the Fed's independence, and Trump may value the "loyalty" of the next Fed chair. Milan's probability of being nominated for the next Fed chair increased after the meeting [12]. - Considering the potential increase in Trump's influence on the Fed after Powell's departure in 2026, the 2026 interest - rate path may face more downward risks [12]. Group 5: Asset Allocation Outlook - For US Treasuries, short - and long - term yields are at low levels, and the curve may steepen further. It is recommended to take short - term profits on US Treasuries, especially long - term ones, and consider switching to TIPS to avoid inflation risks [13]. - For US stocks, there may be short - term technical adjustments, but in the long - term, the Fed's dovish stance and AI narrative are positive. AI - related sectors and interest - sensitive sectors may perform well [14]. - The US dollar may continue to weaken. Gold's pricing of falling US Treasury yields may be sufficient, and it is advisable to buy on dips. Emerging market stocks, bonds, and currencies may rise, and Hong Kong stocks, especially the Hang Seng Tech Index, may perform better [14].